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Why Obama has to stay above 50 percent
Salon ^ | Bill Greener

Posted on 10/26/2008 6:13:00 PM PDT by Chet 99

Oct. 27, 2008 | As his campaign manager has described it, John McCain is now looking at a "narrow-victory scenario." "The fact that we're in the race at all," added Steve Schmidt, "is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong."

But talk of miracles and head winds aside, I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that's not just because I'm a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.

Much has been written about the so-called Bradley Effect, in which voters lie to pollsters about whether they're willing to vote for a black candidate. The Bradley Effect is meant to explain why, for example, Doug Wilder had a healthy 9-point lead up to Election Day in the 1989 Virginia governor's race, and a similar lead in exit polling, only to squeak through to victory by one-half of 1 percent. But I'm not talking about voters telling pollsters they're going to support Candidate A when they're really going to vote for Candidate B. There are two other ways in which voters can mislead pollsters about their intentions. One is to decline to participate in a poll. (More than one expert has suggested that conservatives are more likely to decline than liberals, meaning there could be many uncounted McCain voters.) The other is when pollsters participate in a poll but withhold information.

(Excerpt) Read more at salon.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; leftwingconspiracy; mccain; obama
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To: Chet 99
"The fact that we're in the race at all," added Steve Schmidt, "is a miracle.

Yeah, Steve, and that miracle is named Sarah Palin.

61 posted on 10/26/2008 7:24:27 PM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin is a smart missile aimed at the heart of the left!)
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To: Dawn531
If you haven't been converted to the great Obama by now, as an undecided you are most likely not going to vote for him on Nov 4th. The way I see it you either are totally overwhelmed by Obama or you or not impressed. There is no middle ground!
62 posted on 10/26/2008 7:26:59 PM PDT by Plumres
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To: Houghton M.

Increase your home owner’s insurance, pack the irreplaceables, call in sick and head out of town before sundown November 4. Don’t go back until the all clear is signaled.


63 posted on 10/26/2008 7:27:51 PM PDT by Betty Jane
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To: Miss Didi

It is going to be interesting.


64 posted on 10/26/2008 7:29:40 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: lonestar67

No one talked about it, but it was real here in OH. Blackwell’s last polling numbers were -6 (high) and -14 (low). He lost by -25. Steele’s variance was much less, about 2 points. The only race I’ve found where Bradley was no noticeable factor at all was Lynn Swann in PA, and I attribute that to the fact that he was a sports icon who was viewed not as black or white but as “A Steeler.”


65 posted on 10/26/2008 7:38:46 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: CSI007

I think if McCain gets to 47%, he’s ok. The undecideds will probably make up the remaining 3%.


66 posted on 10/26/2008 7:40:39 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Ziva

lol. Well we could all say we are UNDECIDED. HAHAHAHA.


67 posted on 10/26/2008 7:42:56 PM PDT by annieokie
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To: Porterville

“We need to start a movement; that Conservatives will not participate in polls.”

I agree with the first sentence. After the election, regardless of how it will turn out, I intend on trying to create such a movement starting with FR. The gist of this will be to announce that Republicans/Conservatives will tell the pollsters that they are voting Democratic. This should be a public movement that everyone is aware of. If successful, this will neutralize pollsters by rendering them useless. This will require participation by Conservatives.


68 posted on 10/26/2008 7:46:35 PM PDT by TakeChargeBob
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To: TakeChargeBob

You don’t agree with my second sentence :)


69 posted on 10/26/2008 7:59:16 PM PDT by Porterville (No class, No brains, No-bama!!)
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To: Porterville

Let me amend. I agree with the second sentence as to what is happening now.

I was thinking of what should happen in a new strategy after the election. For that we need conservatives to participate but intentionally render the polls meaningless.


70 posted on 10/26/2008 8:10:35 PM PDT by TakeChargeBob
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To: Chet 99
I've had very similar thoughts as this writer. I've been struck by Obama's inability to hit over 50% in any polls but the most outrageously weighted outliers. Given the economy, media bias, etc., its almost unfathomable that if a likely voter were going to vote for Obama, he or she wouldn't have already made that decision. In this light, Obama is almost like an incumbent.

Right now, the better polls are showing its somewhere between a 3 to 5 point race. Basically, its roughly 48-43 at worst. Assume this guy is right, and roughly 80% of the undecideds break toward McCain, and its 50-50. However, this assumes the pollsters have the party breakdown, PERFECT. Historically, this is very unlikely. Historically, they've always undercounted Republicans by at least 2 to 4% even in the better polls.

Hence, using what to my mind are fairly conservative assumptions, and assuming no further movement in the polls toward McCain -unlikely given that the polls seem to be moving in his direction, right now- and it seems to me McCain would win if the election were held today by at least 1 to 2 percent -either 50.5-49.5 or 51-49.

71 posted on 10/26/2008 8:10:35 PM PDT by AlguyA
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To: Chet 99

Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.

Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts


72 posted on 10/26/2008 9:50:51 PM PDT by Kevmo (I love that sound and please let that baby keep on crying. ~Sarah Palin)
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To: LS

I agree 47 is the magic number. 46 at the absolute lowest (if Obama is under 50). I’m not talking about RCP though. I would say Battleground or Rasmussen I suppose. McCain needs to push HARD - this is the last full week.


73 posted on 10/26/2008 9:55:00 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: TakeChargeBob

Republicans should boycott polls and socialist DBM talk shows like Meet the Press, CNN, and the MSNBC whores.
All Republican spokesman should just ignore socialist media journalists period.
DBM just wants to get in our face - so let’s just get out of theirs. Besides their audience numbers are so pathetic that nothing is really lost by ignoring them.

They’d soon start feeling pretty stupid just talking to their own idiotic in-bred selves.
We might even get some respect. You only miss it when you don’t have it anymore.


74 posted on 10/27/2008 2:44:59 AM PDT by A'elian' nation
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To: Norman Bates

It looks like Obama is at or over 50% in all polls except IBD.


75 posted on 10/27/2008 6:16:53 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: Kevmo
Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls. Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers

Why not just buy the McCain contract to win? He wins, you get an 800% return at current odds.

76 posted on 10/27/2008 7:29:42 AM PDT by Dick Holmes
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To: Dick Holmes

Because you could still make money if McCain loses but beats the spread.


77 posted on 10/27/2008 10:07:27 AM PDT by Kevmo (I love that sound and please let that baby keep on crying. ~Sarah Palin)
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To: WOSG

yeah when do we get to riot?


78 posted on 10/27/2008 6:36:57 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Drill ANWR, Personal Accounts NOW ,)
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To: Senator Goldwater
Sounds like he’s on to something.

now watch all the pollster make sure they show Obama at 50 percent or above...

79 posted on 10/27/2008 6:56:05 PM PDT by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: TakeChargeBob
“We need to start a movement; that Conservatives will not participate in polls.”

i disagree... conservatives need to become pollsters... and be damn good at it...

80 posted on 10/27/2008 7:02:37 PM PDT by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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