The only reason I use RCP is because I have no idea what polls to trust any more and I figure it must count in at least some accurate polls even if it they are exceeded by an even higher number of inaccurate ones... which polls are you using? finding it really hard to find a good pollster this year.
Check out the ones that have been posted recently, but more importantly check out the internals. Some of the polls that are averaged in at RCP were the least accurate in prior elections.
You use the only one that is close to realistic and was the champ in 2004: IBD/TIPP