Good news ping.
History suggests that most of the “undecided” voters in GA and MO will break for McCain.
This is Mason-Dixon, so there’s more reason to trust their numbers.
The bad news is further confirmation that IA should have been written off. McCain skipped the state caucuses and is also in opposition to ethanol subsidies.
Chet, you’re not smarter than the McCain/Palin campaign, okay? If they’re still campaigning in Iowa, then it’s still serving their purposes. Iowa borders MN, WI, MO and the Omaha area.
Isn’t Mason-Dixon a robopoll?
For ex: two weeks ago we heard McCain was down 4 in MO privately; then a week or so, up 4; now, the public polls show him up. Same trend in GA, where we knew this was baloney that Obama was even close. Now, belatedly, the public pollsters are picking it up. Same thing in NC, where McCain is starting to get a lead. Same thing in FL, where he had a lead and we were hearing it was really pretty big.
Now we see that CA early voting of over 100,000 has a net advantage to Dems of . . . 1,000 votes???? And how many Dems voted McCain? In the BLUEST OF BLUE STATES (except MA)?????
I'm sensing there is something in the IA, NH, and PA numbers that look very good.
I disagree. Iowa is like Wisconsin: very close, and better demographically for McCain than for Bush. His internal polls must be telling him this because he and Sarah spent part of their weekend in Iowa. Party ID is very competitive (R36, D34 in 2004). Bush won 50-49 in 2004 and lost by 49-48 in 2000. It is 96% white. I suspect that this poll is slightly oversampling Democratics and grossly undersampling Republicans. What else is new.
McCains issues in IA are purely based on Ethonol and Farm subsidies... nothing more.