IBD/TIPP: O-45.8%, M-41.9%, Undec-12.2%

IBD/TIPP ^ | 10/25 | IBD/TIPP

[kesg]

As I said yesterday, I’m watching the gender internal for this poll because it is the only demographic that probably has a large enough sample side to be barely meaningful.

It’s not too bad today:

Men: McCain up 48-40 with 12% undecided (Bush 55-44 in 2004). Pretty good. 55-44 in the end (or something close) looks very doable.

Women: McCain down 51-38 with 12% undecided) (Kerry 51-48 in 2004). This is more of a problem, although McCain should get most of the undecideds in this group as well.

[kesg]

I will eat my hat if 12% of voter are still undecided.

Start eating. :) In 2004, 11% were still undecided going into the last week of the election. Most of them were in Kerry demographics and ultimately they went to Kerry. This year, the situation is reversed: most of them are white voters and older voters who voted mostly for Bush four years ago.

[Frantzie]

Rasmuss does Robo calling. My guess is Repubs have caller ID, answering machine and ignore the calls.

[Yaelle]

I’ve been doing some calls for McCain, and I am getting close to 10% undecideds, and I’m using Republican lists. While I am thinking in my head of pushing these people a la Elaine on Seinfeld and screaming at them “UNDECIDED?! At this point? Are you NUTS?!” instead, I warmly wish and hope that they consider sliiiiding over to our side and voting McCain so that he can protect their earnings as well as our national security, and at that point MANY (more than half) will admit that they are leaning McCain. I wish them a great day and get off the phone - I like to keep callers for less than 30 seconds so that they are not annoyed by the call, and leave them smiling.

[Cedric]

Excellent work! Thanks!

[ggekko60506]

I agree.

The only reasonable explanation for the overall volatility seen in the polls is this large undecided pool.

The key question is the demographic characteristics of this poll of voters.

If it is composed of intimidated/cowed voters that has been created by climate fostered by the MSM this year, then they could break heavily for McCain-Palin.

This is similar to the John Major surprise win in the UK. The “timid tory” effect completely surprised the pollsters in that election.

I think we are looking at the “cowed conservative” effect in this election.

[bray]

Wonder how many undecideds are really McCain not wanting to say?

Pray for W, Mavericks and Our Troops

[tatown]

If you look at the recently released (10/23) internals for the Battleground poll they show:

Men: M-49%, O-44%

Women: M-41%, O-51%

http://www.tarrance.com/files/10.23-Public-tables.pdf

Similar to the numbers that TIPP shows.

It is noteworthy that Battleground’s party breakdown is D-42%, R-37%, I-21% and they only have a 3-point lead for Obama. The lead shrinks to 2-points in their unaided ballot.

[LostInBayport]

Why anyone would take a perfectly nice vehicle and turn it into...that? It is an insight into the deranged liberal mind that they are seized by this compulsion to festoon their vehicles with their politics...insipid, simplistic, and preachy views at that. Yet if they see a car with a Bush or McCain sticker, they find it appropriate to vandalize it.

Here in Massachusetts, I see cars like this all the time...I think some liberal dealerships sell them that way. /s

[tatown]

Great job, we will all be rewarded by your efforts.

[PaRep]

Here you people go

http://tinyurl.com/67x5gb

A story from a pollster

[TornadoAlley3]

I read on another thread here that pollsters calling people were mostly black and people did not feel comfortable saying McCain so said undecided. Hope it is true.

[Kevmo]

bmflr

[WalterSkinner]

..1.1 to 3.5 to 3.9 over the last 3 days—keep it under 5 nationally and McCain has a good chance...

[jilliane]

As Biden would say, “Is that a joke?”

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

That's a huge number of undecideds for just over a week out.

They are mostly McCain voters not admitting it.

[pctech]

If you trust this poll, do you honestly believe that McCain is only bringing in 42% of the vote right now? I honestly believe this figure is lower than he’s actually polling; he should be even or ahead of Obama, wouldn’t you think?

[The South Texan]

I think I read or heard something on the radio that some pollsters will put leaners that are undecided into whatever canidate they are leaning towards. They don’t ask them how soft that support is.

[D_Hawk]

Some of the polls are positive, but if you look at the overall numbers, its not good. Let’s not get overly giddy, remember 2006! Below is the pollster latest poll which averages all the polls and it does not look good, unfortunately.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/08USPresGEMvO.xml&choices=Obama,McCain&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=2008-08-01&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=1&points=&trends=&lines=

Unless there is a major shift this is not going to go well, I already voted for McCain and at this point that is all we can do and not get discouraged.

[kesg]

The key question is the demographic characteristics of this poll of voters.

Based on reviewing internals from various polls and comparing them to the 2004 exit poll data, most of the remaining undecideds seem to be white voters who supported Bush in 2004 but have not yet settled on McCain. If they break along the lines of the 2004 distribution, McCain will come close to the same support of white voters that Bush got. This is a high impact demographic: each point of undecided white voters that either candidate picks up is worth 0.77 in his overall national support.