I’m hoping McCain can pull it out but it would be the greatest upset in history if he does.
If you go back a yr, unemployment is up close to 2% from this time last year. It’s gone up just about every month this year. In the post war era, the only other election yr that had a comparable rise in unemployment leading to the election was 1980. What happened to the incumbent party then? Even in 92 when Clinton won the economy unemployment was only up by .4% from the past yr and actually declined in the months leading up the election. By comparison, in 2004 unemployment declined by .4% in the year leading up to the election. In 2000, it declined by .2%. Just ask yourself what would have happened in 2004 if we had a 2% jump in unemployment the year leading up to the election and the highest unemployment rate in 15 yrs? We’d be talking about Pres Kerry right about now.
The stock market has lost 30-35% of its value in the past 6 weeks. There’ve been massive drops like every day for a month straight. That’s unprecedented in an election yr. AGain, in 2004, 2000 the market was pretty stable. In just about every election year it hasn’t moved more than 2-3% in either direction.
Inflation is the highest in 15 yrs.
The GDP growth will show that we’ve contracted for the first time in 7 yrs or so. The worst figures in quite some time. Especially in an election yr.
And those are just basic figures. I haven’t even mentioned the bailout, the collapse of AIG, all the banks, Lehman and Bear Sterns and Fannie and Freddie and the whole mortgage and housing mess.
Or Bush’s historic low approval ratings. Or the fact that Obama has outspent McCain by 5-1 or more.
You add all that up and no wonder things aren’t looking so great. No incumbent party should have even a chance at winning with those figures. It should be impossible for any challenger to lose with those figures. Despite all of that, McCain appears to still have some sliver of hope. But every day like today when the dow loses 300+ is like another shot to the gut. If we could have a fairly good week next week and McCain and Palin can have a good week and do well in OH, FL, VA, NC, CO and MO we can win this.
Not an optimal position, but all things considered, it could be worse. The last two times the economy was this bad heading into an election the incumbent party won 6 states each time. Even in worst case scenario, McCain will win 18 states or so, and he should win at least 22. So, things could be a lot worse. This should tell us what our absolute floor is.
But the facts, particularly the economic date make this the most difficult election to win for the GOP since 1964. Not really McCain’s fault, but that’s where we are. If the economy had simply stayed as it was back in September, we’d have a very good chance of winning. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out and it completely collapsed.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I'd like to see McCain -3 in the exit polls, then +6 on 5 November, Olbermann having exited the set feet first, having gone aphasic mid-rant, Obama homeless due to collateral damage in Hyde Park.
Oh the drama!
This Democrat congress has the lowest approval rating in history.
Everything has gone to pot since the Democrats took control of congress.
Nice try though.....The trend is all McCain!
To you, the media and pollsters anyway. Of course at least two of those were upset last time and the time before that.
I have at least as much credibility as any poll. And I say: No way America elects Obama.
Disagree. If the dems hadn't put up such a radical leftist terrorist sympathizer, then we would see the floor.
Moreover, a Democrat controlled Congress is also responsible for the mess.
When people vote for a President, they want one they can trust, and that is why Obama is going to lose.