Posted on 10/24/2008 9:59:27 PM PDT by Chet 99
Released: October 25, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 51.1%, McCain 41.6%
McCain gains among independents; Obama's base still solid
UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain is making a slow upward turn at week's end, but still trails Democrat Barack Obama by 9.5 points with a week and a half left before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.
"McCain's improvement in the poll, and the fact that there is still a notable slice of the electorate that is either yet undecided or soft in their support of one candidate or the other, indicates that anything could still happen in this race," said Pollster John Zogby.
The poll, a three-day rolling average survey of likely voters nationwide, shows that McCain made up significant ground among independent voters, though Obama continues to lead by a 50% to 34% margin, the telephone tracking survey shows. McCain was down by 26 points among independents yesterday.
Obama leads among women, 56% to 40%, and he holds a four-point lead among men. Obama continues to lead among voters of all ages, though the race among some age groups have tightened.
|
|
Week Three Three-Day Tracking Poll |
10-24
|
10-23 |
10-22 |
10-21 |
10-20 |
|
Obama |
51.1% |
51.3%
|
52.2% |
51.6% |
50.3% |
|
|
McCain |
41.6% |
41.0% |
40.3%
|
42.0% |
42.4% |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Others/Not sure |
7.3% |
7.7% |
7.5% |
6.4%
|
7.3% |
|
|
|||||||
|
Week Two Three-Day Tracking Poll |
10-19 |
10-18 |
10-17
|
10-16 |
10-15 |
10-14 |
10-13 |
|
Obama |
49.8% |
47.8%
|
48.3% |
48.7% |
49.0% |
48.2% |
49.0%
|
|
McCain |
44.4%
|
45.1% |
44.4% |
43.7% |
43.5% |
44.4%
|
42.8% |
|
Others/Not sure
|
5.8% |
7.1% |
7.3% |
7.6% |
7.5%
|
7.4% |
8.2% |
|
|
|
Week One Three-Day Tracking Poll
|
10-12 |
10-11 |
10-10 |
10-9 |
10-8
|
10-7 |
10-6 |
|
|
|||||||
|
Obama |
47.9% |
48.9% |
47.6% |
47.6%
|
47.8% |
47.1% |
47.7% |
|
McCain |
43.6% |
42.8% |
43.8%
|
43.4% |
44.2% |
45.2% |
45.3% |
|
Others/Not sure |
8.5% |
8.3%
|
8.6% |
9.0% |
8.0% |
7.7% |
7.0%
|
Obama widened his lead among Catholic voters, and now carries a 25-point advantage, up from a 22-point lead in yesterday's report. While Obama continues to lead among Protestants who are not evangelical and McCain leads among evangelical voters, McCain holds a slim edge among Jewish voters.
In what may be an indication that McCain's reliance on "Joe The Plumber" ideals on the campaign trail may be paying off, he has moved ahead of Obama among likely voters in households making between $35,000 and $50,000 per year, and the race is now essentially a dead heat among voters in households with income between $50,000 and $100,000 per year. Obama led in all income categories yesterday.
Obama continues to win a significant 19% slice of the conservative vote, while McCain now wins only 3% of the support of liberals. Among moderates, which comprise about 30% of the sample, Obama leads, 64% to 29%.
Since the beginning of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking two-and-a-half weeks ago, Obama has gained 3.4 points, while McCain has lost 3.7 points.
The three-day rolling average telephone poll includes 1,203 likely voters nationwide, surveyed at the rate of about 400 interviews per 24-hour polling period (each polling period begins and ends at 5 p.m. daily) and was conducted Oct. 21-24, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.
Daily Tracking Continues
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1362(10/25/2008)
Zogby should be banned from here with his bad polling.
Seriously.
The Big Mo is building.
McCain in a squeaker.
Laugh.
Okay, so Zogby is now walking back Obama's lead. WTH is up with Zogby? McCain trailing by 25 points among Catholics, but leading among Jews?
Zigby is working hard for “the man.” 10% lead. LOL! Somebody been hittin’ the happy smoke again.
His polling is comical. Go to liberal blogs and even they think he’s a laughingstock.
Bush
213
Kerry
311
says it all.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I believe Obama is still in the lead at this point. I don't think there is any chance he is up double digits nationally though.
What do you want to bet that Zogby will begin a slow build in McCain support to have the race a dead heat by the end of next week? He is a TOOL.
How in the hell does Obambi win without a majority of the Jewish vote????
%10 undecided looks like a lie to me.
If jewish voters are going for McCain, its hard to believe the total vote is going Obama. They are a mainstay of the Dem party. If they are going Repub, you have to wonder if the polling is telling the true story.
In a fifty fifty country, you only need to shift a few votes to win.
Hard too believe that the baby killer has a 25 point lead over McCain among “Catholics.” We aren’t in trouble. Humanity is.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Do a FR search on “specialsauce” Zogby dominates with the spice.
Isn’t Zogby a robopoll?
Yeah, that’s the one that struck me as absurd. Obama has a double digit lead among Catholics, but McCain is leading with Jews?
No way.
Zogby’s sample size is, frankly, bullshit. He can’t have talked to more than a dozen Jews. Yet he’s publicizing his crosstabs as if they were statistically significant. That’s disreputable.
They are less than 2 pc of the population.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.