Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Not according to the poll I posted. Try again.
If McCain-Palin win Pennsylvania, this election is over. The only thing left will be to make sure McCain-Palin win the Popular Vote.
face it guys...Obama is only appearing to win because of the financial crisis and skewed polls...his camp is not brilliant, but think about it, Mac HAS HAD moments of brilliance, he has not been perfect, but I do believe Mac has a smarter, sharper camp than Hussein does and strategically I think they have an edge over Obambi. Mac knows how to stage a late comeback that is victorious. Keep the faith but praying several times a day for God to deliver us from evil will also not hurt :)
I think it will depend on the level of his defeat. If he is landslided I think he will shrink into oblivion. But if it is close, yes, he may try again. But he will going up against a much wiser hillary and her angry....VERY ANGRY PUMA’s.....good luck with all that bambi! LOL!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
It's just as much racism to vote FOR someone because of his skin color as it is to vote AGAINST someone because of his skin color.
Any feeling for Italian-Americans in Philly and Bishop Martino speaking about abortion. Are Italian-American still a large voting bloc there?
Yes but not sure how much effect it will have.
There have been several high profile killings downtown in recent months, black on white, and police killed as well. Race tensions are high, which will lose BO white votes.
Did you know that 47.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
and yet his people are campaigning and campaigning and campaigning all over the city — can’t walk 10 feet with some O-head harassing me to register, give money etc...
at first I thought it was about raising monety — now I think that Obama is interesting in “running-up the score” in states like NY (and maybe CA?) so that he can win the popular vote by a large(r) margin in the event that the electoral congress vote is close...
Also, it is very clear that Obama is trying to build a permanent “campaign” organization — in an Obama Administration (may god forbid it)they will be his street enforcers...
Pumas have been spotted roaming the wilds of Pennsylvania.
I agree with you that Sarah is a big motivator this election, but another even bigger motivation is not letting the Senate's most liberal a-holes get anywhere near the White House.
I just drove through Southern and Eastern PA on my way up to Western NY, from the DC area of Virginia. I didn’t really have any evidence of strong support favoring one candidate or the other, from what I could see on the highway (I-70, the Turnpike, I-76, I-79, I-90), that is until I got to Erie.
Until I got to Erie, I was surprised that I saw almost NO bumper stickers on other cars, or campaign signs along the highway. I did have one guy pass me and honk as he waved, having seen my McCain bumper sticker.
Driving past/through Erie on I-90, and the remaining miles up ‘til the NY line, I was pleasantly surprised to see around five or six LARGE McCain/Palin signs along the side of the interstate, a few miles apart, for all to see! There were a few smaller signs here and there also. No Hussein signs in that area that I can recall. One Hussein bumper sticker that clings to memory because it was an “O’Bama” mock-Irish spelling, green with shamrocks and all...
Erie has historically been known as somewhat of a belwether American city, representing a cross-section of typical US cities or something along those lines.
It didn’t say that: the 27% of GOP voters are probably mostly undecided with 1-2% committed to a minor party candidate. Likewise the 25% of D’s.
Sad, but true.
Thought you’d like this.
Sad but that will not help Obama at all. Race tensions have never been too good there.
I think Rendell and the machine & unions around Philly will do little or nothing based on what you told me.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
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"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
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