Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
Don’t forget, folks; during the Primary Season, on the Eve of the New Hampshire Primary and on the Eve of the PA Primary, the polls showed Obama defeating Hillary. Hillary won both states handily.
Your right. What were we thinking. Solidarity forever. Lots of those union guys will forget how much longer it took them to get a job because of affirmative action.
You could be right. CNN-Time (same time frame as MD) has Obama +10, so it's really hard to get a good sense of where Virginia is given the volatility. However, no poll since September has given McCain a lead.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Texas?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Of winning Michigan? Null. McCain pulled out his ads and his ground game, but Obama left his intact.
Moreover last five polls in Michigan. Obama +22, Obama +16, Obama +14, Obama +16, Obama +18.
Michigan isn't winnable absent a game changer.
I think we are likely 1-3 down in VA right now but closing in. CNN and some other goon(s) had it at a 10-13 point race. Ridiculous.
“However, no poll since September has given McCain a lead.”
As long as at least one poll in November gives McCain a lead it will be good enough!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I'm not arguing with you. The polls reflect the state of the election today. The playing field can shift quickly.
It’s already started actually. I also know that the McCain camp believes elections and this one in particular given Obama’s poor closing record in the primaries are won or lost in the final 72 hours so they are planning a big final push.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Huh? The MSM/Drivebys were in the tank for Kerry, and the polling in '04 was very different.
He has held back but from here on out he will have enough capital reserves to have a fully funded full throated campaign.
I was saying that McCain might win a major city in Texas, or if he does pick up a major city, you might find that city in Texas.
YEah. I see McCain making a solid sweep in most of the south including NC and hopefully VA. NH should go McCain. I still think NJ could be a outside fluke.
FL comes in around Central time because of the panhandle unless the LIB MSM try to call it early again but I think McCain bags FL.
If we see PA go McCain then the midwest rustbelt will all go McCain including OH, IN, MO. Hopefully Bush has the FBI and DOJ all over OH. I think OH McCain voters should swamp ACORN.
We may also see WS or MN and maybe both go McCain. MI is a long long shot.
Then we get to NV, CO and NM. I think McCain gets CO and maybe NM but I doubt it. AZ, ID, WY, MT, NE and on.
Pennsylvania is certainly winnable for McCain. That’s why you saw Hussein campaigning there again recently. Obama and McCain both in a blue state...... Obama’s internals must tell him he has problems there. Looks like Murtha might also lose.
“The playing field can shift quickly.”
It will.
FWIW. I live and work in northern California. For a couple of months it seems like about 10% of the cars I see on my commute have 0 bumper stickers. But over the last three days I have seen just one. And I have been looking, because it is weird. That one I saw today and it read "Latinos for Obama."
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
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