Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)

Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

[Thane_Banquo]

Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.

So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.

If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!

So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's

In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!

If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.

The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters

[goldstategop]

MI? With Detroit coming in for Obama, nope - not gonna happen.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[GCC Catholic]

McCain is not going to carry any big city. He'll be content with medium sized cities, small towns and rural America. Life's not fair.

Oh, I realize that. Even if Erie goes 2:1 for Obama, I'd consider that a good showing for McCain! It would be enough to let small-town and rural PA carry the day.

[Norman Bates]

Come on. You don’t actually believe McCain is 6 down in VA? M-D a few days ago had it at 2 and yesterday I saw a local poll showing it a 1 point race. This is all before or at the very beginning of McCain’s ad surge which is really happening now.

If McCain wins PA he won’t lose VA.

[fatima]

Yes but I can understand the pride for them.He might not have grown up here but for many blacks when they come to America they are floored by what they consider unfair racial actions.They see Obama as embracing them and that is for the African Americans here and overseas.I know the Liberian community was not happy with the way they were treated by the white Catholics so they started their own church.The American blacks feels we don't understand them so they like him to a degree.Some don't trust him and most can't vote.God Bless Them and I listen but McCain is going to take PA.

[Norman Bates]

Yep and if the election were held today you’d probably be right. But it isn’t. We’ll see the gap close in the final week.

[goldstategop]

Right. Obama absolutely needs it. If he can't take it, he'll have trouble later in the night in the north central Midwest and then in Mountain States. So I agree PA is a bellweather state and that's why McCain and Palin are spending so much time there. If they lose it, it won't really matter what happens the rest of the night.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[no dems]

Never. NY is in the tank for Obama. I'd say you have a better chance of California going for McCain than New York. Here's why:

The Proposition 8 (Gay Marriage Amendment) will bring out Conservatives in droves in California. Plus, the Latino factor. I don't care what anyone or any poll says, there is great animosity amongst the Black and Hispanic communities. I believe Mac will do well amonsgt Hispanics, and there are a lot of them in California.

[1035rep]

If McCain wins Pennsylvania it’s over for Obama.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Whenever I look at any of these polls, I always look at 2006 numbers as well as 2004 numbers and consider the 2006 numbers to be more like what we’ll see this time.

In most cases, the 2006 numbers are about the same as the 2004 numbers. Certainly no huge jumps like these polls would have you believe. The idea is crazy.

[Norman Bates]

I agree.

[goldstategop]

I think so. If the election were today, I wouldn't like McCain's chances. But because he has another week, I think he has a chance. And that's because no one thinks he can come back.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[stevecmd]

I see your point but having (D) after your name on a ballot in Philadelphia is worth a lot of votes.

[no dems]

If McCain-Palin win Pennsylvania, this election is over. The only thing left will be to make sure McCain-Palin win the Popular Vote.

Not a problem. McCain/Palin will carry Texas 60/40.

[no dems]

I’m concerned about Obama having a better “ground team” than McCain to “get out the vote”.

[Frantzie]

Excellent. He makes sure to get the point across that there are no excuses. This is very good news. Not for winning elections but protecting the most innocent and defenseless. In other words you must do the right thing before God.

[yenn68]

Pa is a Union state and he is down by 10 points in Pa so better rethink fox news facts

[comebacknewt]

In the 2006 Santorum wipeout, the breakout was 43 (D) 38 (R) 19 (I).

If you plug Plouffe's numbers into that turnout model, the results would be:

McCain - 56.1
Obama - 43.9

Looks like you are correct. As long as we don't get demolished in turnout, we have a real shot to win it.

[Norman Bates]

It’s just my opinion, and we’ll see soon enough whether I am right or wrong, but I believe Obama’s edge has come partly from running an up until now almost uncontested ad campaign. McCain is now running ads at a much higher clip than before in all his target battlegrounds. By simply getting back on the air in sufficient strength and challenging Obama on his main “strength” (economy) the gap will naturally close.

[goldstategop]

If its dead even, what do you get? I like your projections. Nationwide I think it would 55M, 45O. That's just as guesstimate. We'll see.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Norman Bates]

Plug in these numbers for 2006:

McCain
R 88
D 18
I 46