[comebacknewt]

In the 2006 Santorum wipeout, the breakout was 43 (D) 38 (R) 19 (I).

If you plug Plouffe's numbers into that turnout model, the results would be:

McCain - 56.1
Obama - 43.9

Looks like you are correct. As long as we don't get demolished in turnout, we have a real shot to win it.

[goldstategop]

If its dead even, what do you get? I like your projections. Nationwide I think it would 55M, 45O. That's just as guesstimate. We'll see.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Norman Bates]

Plug in these numbers for 2006:

McCain
R 88
D 18
I 46

[Thickman]

In the 2006 Santorum wipeout, the breakout was 43 (D) 38 (R) 19 (I). If you plug Plouffe's numbers into that turnout model, the results would be: McCain - 56.1 Obama - 43.9 Looks like you are correct. As long as we don't get demolished in turnout, we have a real shot to win it.

Thanks for the numbers. That gives some statistical perspective to what we all think could be the case in PA.