Posted on 10/24/2008 8:05:23 AM PDT by johncocktoasten
Jim,
I read your blog posting on the Party ID and that you felt D+6 was a reasonable weighting. I wish to challenge that assertion. If you review elections for the past 20 years Democrats have never had a Party ID advantage over 4%. And the 4% Margin came in 1996.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/party_id_the_case_for_weights.php
Also, I would contend that in the poll analysis across the media, including the derelicts at Real Clear Politics, there is a garbage in/garbage out effect. RCP is using blatantly bogus polls to inflate Obama margins, to further the narrative that the election isn't close.
In my review of the polls, I am seeing McCain out perform Party ID weighting by 2-4%, no matter how skewed the poll is. Add this to the articles from Gallup regarding proportion of the youth vote not changing from 2004, as well as the inflation of voter registration figures from ACORN (450K new voters vs. 1.3 million new voters originally reported), and the polls are simply crap.
This race comes down to turnout. Simple as that. When you get the exits at 5 pm on Nov 4th and the Party ID comes in D+3 or less, McCain wins. But the idea that the entire "media propelled" perception of this race is based on a great deal of improbable fiction that really has never been based on any verifiable empirical data, is really a tragedy. This race has been a 3-5% race either way the entire time. Maybe if the race was portrayed accurately as tight, there would be some more honest coverage.
I think the mainstream media views their own destiny as tied to Obama. And now they are attached and hermetically sealed. All the better for America, as they will own his Nov 4th demise as much as he does. For good measure, conservatives have had a chance to flush out the pretenders as well. See you later Peggy, Kathleen (we never really knew ya!), Colin, Scottie, and Bill Weld (I still remember those 5 days when folks thought you were a viable presidential candidate). Thanks for hearing me out.
a 6 point spread in party affiliation turn out was never ever credible. Most realistically it will be in the 0-2% range and the maximum it would be is 4% These samplings of 6 and 7% like Rass has been running with all election cycle have never been believable.
Simple question for our friend Jim and all pollsters:
How can you weight a poll that so skews in favor of the Dems when the actual vote is unlikely to skew so much in favor of the dems?
How?
“How?”
Fraud.
The people who do the polling don't know any blue-collar Dems who voted for Hillary and loathe Obama. They are assuming a massive upswing in Dem turnout because all the signs they can see in their circle of acquaintances suggest that there will be one. They cook their assumption into their polls and come up with nonsense.
There are plenty of signs in their own data to suggest that their assumption is flawed, but they resolutely ignore them. None are so blind as those who will not see.
There may be some deliberate fraud, but mostly you're just looking at good, old-fashioned incompetence.
I wonder if Rasmussen will now re weight his poll to represent reality?
bmflr
>>a 6 point spread in party affiliation turn out was never ever credible. Most realistically it will be in the 0-2% range and the maximum it would be is 4% These samplings of 6 and 7% like Rass has been running with all election cycle have never been believable.<<
Rasmussen got it about right in 2004. What %Dem/%Rep numbers did they use then?
in Oct in 2004, Rass was targeting :
34.1%R 36.2%D 29.6%I final turnout 37R, 37D 26I
This year he has been:
33R, 39D and 28I
His targets have been grossly off the entire election cycle.
Also see link: Group’s Tally of New Voters Was Vastly Overstated. Since new voters are supposed to favor BO, that would be bad news for Dems.
I have heard a couple of related stories, such as a poll that said that voter turnout would be lower in 2008 than 2004. I wonder if pollsters will adjust their numbers accordingly.
Yes, I saw that, of course it was just reality finally being realized. I never believed the 1.3 Million new voters claim by Acorn.. turns out truthfully was only about I believe 450k new registrations, the rest were change of addresses and bogus registrations.. and when you figure in that in 4 years in a population of 300 Million, the 450k new registrations will most likely be little more than replace the voters who have died in 4 years.
Libs and Fauxbama backers have created a bogus reality, liberals are good at creating their own reality and ignoring “THE” reality. Problem with created realities is sooner or later they come crashing into the real world, and implode, and that is exactly what’s happening to the Fauxbama myth.
We are winning this handily, and my predictions of a major blowout of McCain are looking more realistic.
>>We are winning this handily, and my predictions of a major blowout of McCain are looking more realistic.<<
Anything is possible, but I will be really surprised if McCain wins big.
I think that if McCain wins it will be just barely. I think it’s very possible that BO will win Virginia, and if that happens I don’t see how McCain can win the election.
Before the economic bailout McCain was doing fine in the polls, but after that he sunk like a rock. I know that doesn’t make sense, but what can I say. Voters can be irrational.
Nope, don’t believe the polls my friend, they are nothing more than propoganda to depress republican turn out at this point, they are so off based on what’s going on on the ground that its comical.
I don’t see this and have never seen this as a “squeeker”. Now, it may not be as bad as I thought it was going to be earlier in the cycle, its clear that Fauxbama’s been given some big gifts with the thanks to the Goebellesque propoganda of the MSM, but it still won’t be enough.
Fauxbama on his best day in a perfect storm for him could never top 47/48 in the popular vote, and he’s not going to get that perfect storm or perfect day on 11/4.
PA is not going to go for him, and I still believe at least 1 more rust belt state will flip for him.
The polls are not remotely believable... 6-10 points registrative turnout gap for Democrats? Not remotely believable. Realistically its going to be 0-2% for the D’s, the worst possible it will be is 4%. The polls have been propoganda, nothing more.
McCain is easily 4-5 points higher in the national polls than what you are being told.
Late breakers will break McCain by wide margins as well, making the gap even higher. This isn’t going to be a squeaker, and that’s doom for Fauxbama. Fauxbama’s only chance for a win is a squeaker for him, that’s the best he can do, and this one isn’t going ot be a squeaker and isn’t going to be Fauxbama.
We’ll see what happens on Nov. 4.
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