Poll: Obama edges ahead of McCain in Montana

Associated Press ^ | 10/23/08 | MATT GOURAS

[Alter Kaker]

A new poll shows that Democrat Barack Obama could be edging ahead of Republican John McCain in Montana.

Obama is at 44 percent and John McCain is at 40 percent in the Montana State University-Billings poll released Thursday. The poll reverses others from earlier in the fall that showed McCain with a lead in the state.

The poll of 403 Montanans was conducted from Thursday though Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Both Obama and McCain did a pretty good job in the poll of holding their party's base, but Obama held an advantage among self-described independents.

By a large margin, respondents said they thought McCain had run a more negative campaign.

Predictably, McCain got better marks on the foreign relations issue while Obama scored better on the economy.

[scratcher]

Hey Leo,

You got ONE poll. Don’t drink the Kool-aid. McCain is ahead +8.

[wbill]

The issue with Montana if it is close is that it has a large libertarian block of voters which could sway the election. ...I could see McCain not being conservative enough for voters in Montana, and losing out because they stay home.

But that doesn't translate into an Obama win in the polls, that's Obama-12%, McCain-8%, and 80% "undecided".

I'll gladly take all comers on Obama to win in Montana. Place your bets.

[kesg]

If some knucklehead outfit in Texas comes out with a poll showing that Obama has pulled ahead here, does that mean that Sarah Palin will come to Dallas and drop a puck at a Stars game?

[Leo Farnsworth]

Again I ask you, WHERE DO YOU LIVE?

YOU OBVIOUSLY DO NOT LIVE IN MONTANA.

[RetiredArmy]

Time to move downt Wyoming you folks in Montana. It is getting full of Ted Turner types.

[microgood]

There is a Dem senator up for reelection next month. Max Baucus, Dem incumbent is running against Kelleher. Could this be a Republican pick up?

Not sure. I think it was Conrad Burns that did not win reelection in 2006. It may depend on how well McCain does.

[wbill]

Actually, I just went up to RealClearPolitics and skimmed documentation on this poll.

No internals posted. Imagine that. Could be 100% Dem.

Gutless. And unfortunately, this poll will be reported on breathlessly by the news media as "proof positive" that "McCain is screwed".

[SunStar]

Obama is at 44 percent and John McCain is at 40 percent in the Montana State University-Billings poll released Thursday.

Doesn't this add-up to 84%? And this is relevant? 4% different (not counting the margin of error), with 16% undecided?

[scratcher]

California Leo, and I don’t give a damn where you live in Montana, the Muslim will not win the state. McCain is +8 in Montana Leo.

Don’t fret “Conservative FReeper” your state is safe.

[microgood]

...I could see McCain not being conservative enough for voters in Montana, and losing out because they stay home.

Montana libertarians also likes the Constitution which Bush has thrashed so to the extent they equate Bush to McCain he could suffer from libertarians, who never vote Democrat but sway between the Republicans and libertarians. In 2006, there were almost 11,000 votes for the libertarian Senate Candidate, and the Republicans and Demo candidates were only separated by 2500 votes, costing Conrad Burns his seat.

[Perdogg]

http://www.msubillings.edu/CAS/NAMS/Poll2008%20Day-1.pdf

[SunStar]

Anyday now we'll see a headline saying: Obama edges ahead of McCain among White Supremacists

The weird thing is that it would be right in many cases. The neo-Nazi movement tends to support Democrats (especially liberals) because of their tepid support for Israel and appeament of Islamic fanatics, who the Neo-Nazis have allied themselves with. Both groups want to kill and expel outsiders, especially Jews, dontchaknow?

[Palin4President]

Doesn't this add-up to 84%? And this is relevant? 4% different (not counting the margin of error), with 16% undecided?

See: #19

[Gumdrop]

No way the red-neck independent minded Montana folks will vote for Obama.

[kesg]

I know you sent me that link just to annoy me, right? :) Okay, here is what you want to know.

It is impossible to ascertain the breakdown by party ID, but you can glean the following. According to this poll, McCain had stronger support from Republicans than Obama did from Democrats. He also did slightly better among Democrats than Obama did with Republicans. Obama supposedly does about eight points better among Independents.

Now, here is what actually happened in 2004 in Montana:

R39 (95-5 Bush)
D32 (78-21 Kerry)
I (46-46)

Bush won the state by 20 points. He actually outperformed the predicted exit poll result (as reflected in the numbers I just posted) by 1.5 points. Note that Kerry got only 78 percent support from DEMOCRATS in Montana. Oh, and the state is 95% white.

Any questions?

[Theodore R.]

If CA had the “Bradley effect”, then we must presume that MT has the “Ted Turner effect”. Also in WY, the Republican U.S. House candidate is trailing a liberal Democrat.

[Theodore R.]

If CA had the “Bradley effect”, then we must presume that MT has the “Ted Turner effect”. Also in WY, the Republican U.S. House candidate is trailing a liberal Democrat.

[Theodore R.]

If CA had the “Bradley effect”, then we must presume that MT has the “Ted Turner effect”. Also in WY, the Republican U.S. House candidate is trailing a liberal Democrat.

[Boagenes]

Yeah, right.

[Theodore R.]

Frank Church has come out of the grave to endorse Oprah’s Obama. He said he wanted the CIA finished off now.