Posted on 10/23/2008 9:54:04 AM PDT by zaker99
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.
The current data are based on interviews with more than 2,700 registered voters as part of Oct. 17-19 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Gallup asked these voters a question it had asked in its 2004 election polling: whether this would be the first time they had voted in a presidential election, or whether they had voted for president before. Despite much discussion of the possibility of large numbers of new voters in 2008, the percentage of "first time" voters in Gallup polling this election cycle is no higher than it was at approximately the same time in 2004.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
FROM THE ARTICLE BEING DISCUSSED:
“...the fictional voters that ACORN registered, if they turn out we have no chance.”
If I understand this correctly, ACORN registered 1.3 million “voters” nationally. Let’s suppose they all vote 0bama, one way or another. Now consider that there were 18 million Hillary voters in the primary. If only 10% of those vote McCain, which is conservative, the PUMA vote will outnumber the ACORN vote by a comfortable margin. Then you have to factor in the enthusiastic Palin vote, which should be enough to push McCain across the finish line.
If I am missing something here, feel free to correct me.
“Gallup should now change it’s methodology, I hope to see a big McCain surge.”
Seems they could have been asking this question all along.
But I have a theory, that most of the polls will tighten so the MSM and pollsters can avoid blame for riots.
Is this new voter question asked now, so they have their “excuse” to change methodology? and show McCain far better then before?
Those over 50. Go around asking all those over 50 that you know who are faithful dems who they are voting for....not Obama if the people I know are an example.
2004 Turnout:
GOP - 35%
Dims - 29%
As you may already know, I think this is a much more signficant piece of information than any poll that may come out today. This is the entire election in a nutshell. If they don’t show up, the only other way Obama wins is if he can discourage enough GOPers from voting so that we don’t have a repeat of the 2004 electorate. This is why he and his adoring but very worried media are not trying to create the false impression that he is going to win in a landslide. If this happens, the electorate will look much more like 1996 and 2000 and Obama might pull out a squeaker.
I’d say that’s about right.
Neat, but if most of the new voters are going for Obama, the fact there is not a lot more new voters could still help him.
The fact that it appears there are less is good.
CNN had it at 37%/37%
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.