Posted on 10/22/2008 4:46:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Facing seemingly limited options for getting to an Electoral College majority, John McCain’s path to victory likely runs through Pennsylvania, a state that no Republican presidential candidate has won in two decades, a state in which he trails in the polls by a wide margin and a state where in the past year more than a half-million new Democrats have been added to the voter registration rolls.
It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.
“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”
“I don’t believe there’s a double-digit lead,” said Jon Delano, a western Pennsylvania-based political analyst who also serves as an adjunct professor of Public Policy and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University. “The history of the presidential elections here is different.”
Even top Democrats concede that McCain’s deficit in the polls — 11 percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average — isn’t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell had sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania.
“The polls don’t necessarily reflect what will happen on Election Day,” said T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party chairman. “We’re not a state that’s accustomed to huge blowouts.”
Indeed, John F. Kerry carried Pennsylvania in 2004 by just 144,000 votes out of nearly 6 million votes cast. His win was powered, to a large degree, by an enormous 412,000-vote margin out of Philadelphia.
The McCain campaign's formula for winning the state begins with the notion that, despite voter registration gains and strong support for Obama in Philadelphia, it would be difficult to wring more votes out of the state’s largest city than the Kerry campaign did.
They even believe they can carry a few of the heavily Democratic city’s 66 wards, a feat George W. Bush was unable to accomplish in 2004.
“We’re not convinced they can blow it out again,” said a McCain campaign source.
And in the four populous and historically Republican collar counties surrounding Philadelphia, the campaign believes McCain is a far better fit for the socially moderate suburbs than President Bush.
“McCain is more like a [Tom] Ridge than a Bush,” said the McCain campaign insider, referring to the popular former two-term GOP governor. “That gives suburban voters a comfort level with him. He’s a different kind of Republican in so many ways.”
Yet Republican hopes aren’t predicated on a southeastern Pennsylvania-based strategy since McCain is unlikely to run dramatically better than Bush in that vote-rich region.
Rather, the GOP path to victory runs through the socially conservative parts of the state outside the Philadelphia metropolitan region, and bears a strong resemblance to Hillary Clinton’s winning Democratic primary map.
“How do you flip 140,000 votes? You start by cutting in places like Lackawanna and Luzerne counties,” said the McCain campaign source, referring to Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, the traditionally conservative Democratic population hubs of northeastern Pennsylvania.
McCain also must run well in Lancaster and York counties in central Pennsylvania, two Republican strongholds that have received attention from both the Arizona senator and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. McCain also needs to boost his margins in the state’s Republican “T”, a region which begins at the Maryland state line and runs north through the center of the state before expanding to include the northern tier of counties that border New York.
“Winning Philadelphia is not enough for a done deal,” said Delano. “Whether it’s Scranton, Erie, Altoona, Johnstown or the Pittsburgh area, this is a big state. What McCain is counting on is that a lot of Democrats who voted once against Barack Obama in the primary will vote against him again.”
Western Pennsylvania, many pols believe, seems to hold the most promise for the McCain campaign. McCain expects to run better than Bush in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County—which Kerry carried by 97,000 votes in 2004—and in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Obama lost to Clinton by landslide margins.
“Democrats who do well in areas like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre and Pittsburgh are pro-life, pro-gun Democrats like Bob Casey. The Democrats who seem to do poorly in those areas tend to be pro-choice and questionable on guns,” said Brabender. “I think people are going to be shocked by how well McCain is going to do on the western side and in the center part of the state.”
While Democrats acknowledge western Pennsylvania is highly competitive, they remain confident that Obama will carry the state in the end.
“Pennsylvania will be won or lost for Barack Obama in the Philly suburbs,” said state Rep. Josh Shapiro of suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County, the third-largest county in the state after Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. “I anticipate the race will be close and in single digits but I also anticipate that Barack Obama will prevail.”
Rooney, the state Democratic chairman, framed it another way.
“It’s going to get closer,” he said. “But at the end of the day, I would much rather be on the side of the lead I think we have than on the other side of it.”
I have had PA as a red state this whole election season, Hillary crushed him in the primaries, add in the “bitter clingers” and you’ve got an uphill battle for Obama. The attacks on Joe The Plumber sealed his fate.
We recently moved to OKC, but have retained our house and business in Denver. We fly back and forth each week. Because of Colorado being a swing state, we stayed registered there. Today we voted early. One of our biggest fears was Denver would get a horrendous storm before we could fly in and vote on Nov. 4th. Just could not take the chance. I feel so much better now.
TC
I disagree. Rove thinks McCain will do better than Bush in the ring counties of Philly (I have gotten the impression there is a lot of race politics in the suburbs). There is also polling to substantiate that Obama is underperforming Kerry in Pittsburgh. McCain can be expected to do better in Scranton-WB as well.
As for the 2006 analogy, Obama is no Bob Casey Jr. and will not be seen as a Bob Casey Jr. in PA. Casey cut into the “T” - Obama won’t. I doubt Obama will do as well as Casey did in the Philly suburbs.
The case for winning PA is very credible. I think you are wrong to write off NM as well.
Share your thoughts.
Fast Eddie went public with his 'please come back to PA Barrack' spiel because that gives Rendell cover with the party (I knew we needed him to come back...geez, Hill and Bill did). The same way uber loyalist, John Murtha, has called SW PA racist and redneck? Is Johnny off his meds or going senile...no. He is merely covering his own porked ar$e so after the election he can come out and say 'see I told you they wouldn't vote for 0bama...they're racist.' The internal polls the Dems have must be in the toilet for these two come out and give pre-emptive excuses.
Anecdotally, at work and socially there are one or two (in each group) that are so in awe of The One that they have to 'share' his glory with all within earshot. After their 'sharing' the messianic message...there is (consistantly) a network of 'hushed whispers.' 'I'm not voting for him...she's nuts.' Again, and again. PA is going red.
Someone leaked an alleged internal poll from the Obama campaign which shows him up by only two points.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2112600/posts
Clearly, the McCain campaign wouldn’t be stumping in Western Pennsylvania if their internal numbers showed Obama leading by double digit margins. And the McCain camp isn’t paying their pollsters to lie to them.
I think it is rather fitting that much maligned southwestern Pennsylvania, the buckle of the rust belt, home of the knuckle dragging, racist, bitter, redneck religious, gun nut, clingers, might just be the place to drag John McCain across the victory line. Ironic, huh?
On Bill Bennett this morning a caller who works with Philly unions said that the rank and file are now supporting Obama. They see the Socialism and disapprove. Tough to drive get out the vote and fraud efforts without unions.
On Bill Bennett this morning a caller who works with Philly unions said that the rank and file are now supporting Obama. They see the Socialism and disapprove. Tough to drive get out the vote and fraud efforts without unions.
Those two statements seem contradictory.
I questioned it as well. I would really like clarification on this. Teachers unions, SEIU, AFSCME, yes...but your average Teamster or ironworker, no.
I am really angry I didn't have more time to help!
Ooops.. Shouldn’t post this late at night. Meant to say NOT supporting Obama.
oops typo... now should be not...
We’re in Upper Dublin Township, Montgomery County. I’m seeing more and more McCain signs. They seem more numerous than what we saw for Bush in 2004, and that the Obama signs are fewer than we saw for Gore, Kerry or Hillary. In addition to McCain/Palin signs, there are a great many signs for Todd Stephens, which indicates local Republican support. I think some folks just don’t want to put out McCain signs because they are concerned about vandalism. There are a lot of American flags flying. I suspect some of these are conservative voters who are keeping a low profile. I’ve never seen an Obama sign in front of a home flying the flag. I don’t believe Obama is ahead by double digits in PA.
My husband saw a Michael Barone segment on FoxNews where Barone predicted it could come down to Maine and...Nebraska. Which surprised me.
Unfortunately I didn’t see the segment but my husband is certain he heard correctly. And I pay attention to Barone’s electoral analysis.
As long as McCain does better than Bush in Montgomery County that’s a good starting point for victory.
FRegards, PaMom
Read the entire statement.
If they split, it goes to other states to decide.
So what he was saying was correct, if McCain gets Penn. and holds Fl. he will win.
If Obama gets Fl. and holds Penn. he win.
If they split the two, the election will hinge on other States such as Ohio and Col.
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