Posted on 10/22/2008 10:31:11 AM PDT by zaker99
Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
I was able to find their detailed data from 2004 after I submitted this posting.
http://www.tipponline.com/samplereport.XLS
On 10/22/2004, the IBDD poll was dead even: Kerry 45%, Bush 45%, and 10% undecided. On 11/2/2008, there were still 9% undecided -- the data was collected 10/30-11/1. So, the 12% undecided at this point is not unprecedented.
In the last 2004 IBDD poll (published the next day), undecideds dropped to 4.4% -- which was subsequently split 2.7% to Kerry, 1.5% to Bush, and 0.2% to Nader. They don't describe how they came up with those allocations.
I love over 12% undecided. If they haven’t tasted the Kool Aid by now they never will.
If you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you.
I think it’s safe to say that this may be the most difficult election in U.S. history for pollsters to get accurate numbers on.
Which has to give hope to the guy trailing I would think.
Zogby had Kerry leading in a landslide also on November 2, 2004—I just googled it. Zogby has the military split, which is a complete joke. The military times had 3-1 for McCain.
Undecideds will go McCain.
McCain is still scheduling events in New Mexico and Iowa.. Their internals must think they still have a shot here.
I also live in Southern California. You are seeing fewer McCain signs because they are being removed. One of neighbors called the San Diego County Republican Party to get a McCain/Palin sign for her front yard. She was told that she should take her sign in every night because 90% of the McCain signs that had been distributed had been stolen. Ain’t the other side grand?
“I love this poll, but McCain is up 53-43 among 18-24 year olds? I hope that’s true, but a little unbelievable.”
If they want a chance to succeed they will vote McCain.
The Rat pollsters have to set the stage so that if they lose, they can readily claim McCain stole the election and the thieves are racist and can feel justified in their rioting that is sure to follow. The media will undoubtedly fan those flames of hatred and TRUE racism so that the left can stock up on stolen goods.
McCain ahead, +2 or +3.
bmflr
“McCain still can’t pull more than 65% of conservatives, in contrast with the 85% support Obama enjoys from his liberal base.”
It’s hard to get traction with conservatives when you go around saying Obama is a decent person and would make a fine president.
It also happens to be a lie. Palin has galvanized the Conservative base.
Because it isn’t true.
This is what Rush said would happen the day after the RNC Convevtion. He said expect a bump for McCain to last a week or so and then all the polls will show Obamain the lead until about 2 weeks from elction day when they’ll slowly come back to reality because all pollsters want to be right at the end. They may participate in party propoganda for a couple of months but at the end they want everyone to remember that they got it right.
Is FOX still using Opinion Dynamics? Whoever they use FOX always manages to come up with the worst results every time.
yes unfortunately like in 2004. They had Kerry ahead by 3 in their last poll before the election.
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