Posted on 10/22/2008 6:32:21 AM PDT by tatown
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama has now enjoyed a modest lead every day for nearly a month.
It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.
For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.
If you go back a couple of weeks further, the results are pretty much the same. It’s now been 27 days since Obama’s support moved below 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points (see trends).
Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama with an 86.0 % chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).
Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 54% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 26% who say the same about McCain (see trends).
Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008 while 19% name national security. Eleven percent (11%) say fiscal issues such as taxes and spending are the highest priority while 10% look primarily to domestic issues such as Social Security and health care. Only 7% name cultural issues as most important.
Polling released yesterday for West Virginia and South Carolina show McCain leading in both. New state polling results were released earlier this week for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. See a video overview of the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Battleground State polls.
Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Take a moment to predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year.
Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of October 19-25, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls, our Quick Campaign Overview and a 50-State Summary of the Presidential Race.
Anyone care to guess what Gallup will show to today?
I am going to say they will continue the wave of doom and have Obama up +10 and +12 in the expanded version.
FReepers:
From here on out, I will give you some advise on how to look at these MSM polls.
Remember the Battered Bastards of Bastogne in 1944. The Airborne General’s famous reply to the overly confident German Army forcing a surrender: “NUTS”
You know the rest of the story.
Take these polls with a grain of salt. It is a close race now. The MSM and the dums are, like the Germans at Bastogne, overly confident. Just say “Nuts” to them, donate, volunteer, and vote!
Once again I will say this until I am blue in the face. NO WAY Obama gets 50 percent of the Vote. Get a life scotty boy. This is really setting up to be a tragic end for obama. These polls are damning to the media. Their will be riots if they dont come back before election day to “within the margin of error” This will be the only way the pollsters and media can say ‘They were fair and objective” This will be interesting. I can almost guarantee you that the polls will drastically tighten beginning later next week into election day. Another note to consider... If Obama was truly up 10 points Like El Zogbo claims or 6 for that matter as Rasmussen says McCain would have to convincingly lose Florida, Ohio and for that matter many other red states. Keep in mind Clinton won in 1996 by 8.5 points and Won Florida, Ohio,Kentucky,Missouri, West Virginia, Louisiana and Arkansas (Of Course) If indeed Obama wins by 6 to 10 points virtually all of those states MUST tilt to him. I dont see that happening folks. These own self proclaimed polling experts show Mccain ahead in all of these states or within the margin of error.
McCain had a 50-45 night last night, but O’s lead jumped 2 for some reason due to the vagaries of tracking poll math/rounding issues.
How do you know it was 50-45?
Say what? Only way McCain can have a 50-45 night and lose ground is if Rasmussen changes weighting.
Did you mean that Obama had a 50-45 day yesterday?
39.7% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
If Rasmussen is wrong, he is wrong because of the above.
I’d say it’s wrong because it should be, from what I hear:
50% - refused to answer
50% - 39.7(50) Democrat, 33(50) Republican, and 27.3(50) unaffiliated.
VOA Daily Tracking Poll has Obama + 3
You should just go get a gun and blow your brains out now.
WTF?
What is the VOA tracking poll?
that wouldn’t bother me. You vote Dem great...I”ll have to let a few people go. Should I keep those who demonized the rich or those who appreciate the fact that the rich tend to provide the jobs
Peddling you usual Doom and Gloom and pushing phony polls .
Right. I think the national polls are more for propoganda. Haven’t heard much MSM coverage of the battle ground states, where numbers are closer.
Voice of America tracking poll. They had McCain + 5 after the bounce and swung as much as O+8 during the financial crisis. I’ve been watching it as their swings are much slower than the rest. I am quite pleased that they have O+3 (McCain has been trending upwards ever so slowly). McCain will win this thing and the media will say it’s the Bradley Effect.
Read this and see what you are contributing to:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2112135/posts
Like I said, WTF?
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