I think Mac wins Florida and Ohio, regardless. That's why PA is so vital - it would be a game-changer allowing for a loss of VA and CO and still providing a potential avenue to victory.
Why would you care what the published polls say? McCain has his internals and this is what matters.
I live in northern VA. I've heard that argument for every election that I can remember. Despite the supposed liberal onslaught Bush actually increased his VA margin ever so slightly from '00 to '04.
The biggest problem that I think we're going to face is that McCain needs to "run the table", while Obama just needs to pick off a few formerly red states. It's doable, but I would far rather have the lead at this point
McCain is in better shape electorally than Obama. Or he's leading, if you prefer.
Let's be realistic, Andy. If you were McCain, and you saw REAL danger in losing VA, NC, OH, MO and FL, wouldn't you be spending ALL your time & money there since it's a proven strategy (see 2000 and 2004) for electoral victory?? Most of us would. So where are McCain/Palin doing much of their campaigning and spending their limited funding? Certainly in some key red states, including FL, OH, and CO, with some visits to MO, VA and NC. But where else? NH, PA, WI, MN.
We can argue that your state of NH is necessary to offset the potential loss of IA or NM. But WI? PA? MN? McCain doesn't need those to win. If he were truly on defense, he wouldn't be there. Add to that upcoming visits this week to purple states (blue in 2000, red in 2004) IA and NM (states many here insist are a lock for Obama, which I find utterly ridiculous).