[Maverick68]

Why would you care what the published polls say? McCain has his internals and this is what matters.

[andy58-in-nh]

Their internal polls are the reason why McCain and the RNC are still pouring money into CO and VA. If they thought they could not win in either place, they would have pulled out and devoted their resources elsewhere. The reason I care about the published polls is because they all agree this year, and not in a good way from our position. Either all the polls are right, or they are all wrong. If they are all wrong, then there must be (a) common factor(s) at work. In other posts, I have outlined several possible causes, assuming the polls are wrong:

- "Likely voter" methodology - use of "expansive" model vs. standard model (that accounts for past voting behavior)

- Overweight Democrat samples based on a common assumption about expected '08 turnout that is at odds with recent electoral history.

- Known higher propensity for Democrats to answer polls.

- "Bradley Effect" - anomalous answers due to perceived social pressure.

My point is that if we accept the idea that McCain has a chance to win, then we must also believe that something very unusual is happening this year, such that the validity of all current polling methodology needs to be called into question. On the face of it, that would seem to be a stretch. But this year, it might just be true.