Posted on 10/21/2008 9:54:29 PM PDT by Hones
A bit better than that, I should think.
Looks good at this point.
There’s going to be a bunch of shocked liberals on November 5th.
Anyone ever hear of this poll? HOW MANY FREAKING POLLS ARE THERE AND WHO PAYS FOR THEM>
For instance, when household union member is "Yes", Obama leads 50-42. When household union member is "No", Obama leads 47-43. How in the heck did they get McCain to 45% when these two categories, which should cover 100% of all likely voters, was between 42-43%? Even Obama's numbers would imply that a vast majority of the likely voters polled were union members in order to hit 50% (rounded).
Is this PA or national?
Looks like the Winds are in the Sails for the Old Admiral.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
A 4% advantage in turnout would equal the dumbies’ best in the past several elections. These polls are way overestimating (10% advantage or more?) dummie turnout. I look at most all of the polls and see a very tight race.
I am either going to kiss all you people who say the polls are the result of oversampling dems, or well you can pick your own punishment after the election.
Has it occurred to any of you oversampling gurus that blacks historically have a lower turnout level, but that Obama is going to get a huge black turnout?
Also that a combined effort by Bush, the media, the dems, and feckless republicans, has indeed caused more people to identify as democrats in a year in which Bush has something like a 20% approval rating, as opposed to 4 years ago when he won reelection comfortably?
And yes I am grouchy I’m waiting for a story to cross here that turns the election around.
McCain needs something to move the polls nationally about 3% It’s possible.
For myself, the Vichy Repubs really anger me deeply, the Chris Buckley types have me a bit hot under the collar, I cannot stand it!
Volunteer at the local victory office, vote, and bring friends to vote and ride friends backsides about voting.
I think actually blacks already have a pretty high turnout. So more will vote this time, but they’ve always been counted on to vote, so how much higher can their turnout get? Anyway, blacks are only 10% of the U.S. population, and falling, right?
What this nation needs more of in the way of turnout are those guys Mike Savage refers to as “backwards-baseball-cap guys sitting there on the couches with their remotes watching porn and sports, and never voting.”
If those guys would just go make an effort and vote, the GOP would always win.
you have your broken glass republicans like me...you have your Christian right, you have your few scattered Jews, and you have all the "bitter clingers, rednecks, racists" ete who are angry that they are being insulted daily....
I don't see it....
I believe McCain is going to win...I believe that we will right this nation somewhat.....I beleive that Sarah Palin will be the best ambassador of peace and goodwill the world has ever seen...
Well I for one do not trust polls at all. I think they are being promoted just to give the impression of greater support for Obama in the hopes of influencing the election result.
And as for the slight lead, Bush was reelected in 2004 over an insufferable left wing traitor by a margin of only 2.4% and the single state of Ohio.
I don’t know why people refuse to accept that more states are becoming more democrat and that demographics are killing us. You can’t keep importing “minority” citizens who routinely vote democrat, and see more and more states slip into the blue column, and expect to keep winning.
In my long but not ancient lifetime, states like NJ which we all ridicule now were available for republican candidates.
I apologize for this dose of reality, I hate the democrat party I think liberals are destroying this country, but that’s where we are. It’s an uphill climb.
I believe McPalin will win handily. Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected visiting FR way too much.
1) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!
2) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to.
3) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
4) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
5) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org
6) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
7) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
8) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
9) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
10) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
11) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
12) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
13) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
14) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
15) Obama has only 60% of the Jewish vote last I checked, compared to the 75% Kerry got (comfortable R win), and the 90% Gore got (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
16) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
17) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
18) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
19) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
20) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
21) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead.
22) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
23) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
24) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
25) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it.
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
If you do start spreading this list, it might not be bad for you to check back for updates since Freepers are always kindly giving feedback to this list.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Mantra: Taxes kill businesses kill jobs kill people
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
You are correct, registered blacks normally turn out almost as much as registered whites. They should turn out more this time and the real question is how many more registered because of Obama. Balcks historically have fewer registered voters.
It isn’t just the black vote. We all have seen polls showing hispanic voters splitting strongly democrat. And I believe they are the fastest growing segment of the population.
Bill Clinton knew that if he could get almost all the minority votes and just a decent showing among whites he would win. That’s it in a nutshell.
Great! SO it’s tied, or McCain is even leading slightly!
(Which actually accords with the tightening or McCain-leading data from all the swing-states that came out today)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.