Posted on 10/21/2008 12:54:51 PM PDT by HK Ball
Added Pennsylvania (21) and Nevada (5) to the previous six states (95 electoral votes), that's a total of 121, with 99 needed to get from present 171 fairly secure for McCain to the 270 required to win ... thought about adding one for New Mexico, but the hispanic vote will I think win that one for Obama ...
We need North Carolina and Virginia - bad!
I am not sure how McCain pulls off his electoral disadvantage. Virginia and North Carolina are probably going to go Obama. Nevada is trending toward Obama. Don’t want to sound pessimistic here, but we need to brace ourselves for the disaster that is coming. We should and must get out and vote for our guy, we can’t let our dismay bring inaction, but we shouldn’t be overly confident or overly optimistic.
McCain does not need VA and NC bad, he must have both the win the Election.
However, I cannot imagine Obama winning NC and VA will tighten and be very close on Election Day.
We will see, the graph lines are made up of polls showing a +6 or more democrat advantage, that is not the situation, the polls are basically trying to discourage Republicans from showing up to vote Galena.
Don’t buy into what they are selling.
We’re not winning the election unless McCain moves in the polls nationally and it brings all these states along as part of the ride. The idea that you can just turn around a state where Obama enjoys a big lead, without the nationwide race changing, is unrealistic.
I’m not accepting th epolls and I assume they will not accurately predict the election day results, BUT I don’t see why democrats wouldn’t have a plus 6% advantage on party identification this year. Hope I’m wrong.
The fact is we are losing these states demographically. With the black vote and hispanics lining up as they are it will be very hard for republicans to win an election. The “minority” population is on its way to becoming a majority and that population votes democrat.
The Columbus Dispatch : FBI probes ACORN over possible voter fraud
F.B.I. Offices Examining Activities of Acorn - NYTimes.com
There are loads more which come to those who SEARCH.
If McCain doesn’t win both VA and NC, it’ll be a very early night. The math just doesn’t add up anywhere else.
Disagree Williams, at least about VA and NC and PA, the demographic trends are showing more minorites at the moment, but eventually those trends will level off.
Now CO,NV and NM are different stories altogether, it is interesting to note that Mr. Amnesty “lite” is receiving support of just 21% of Hispanics, those are Bob Dole levels of support among that group.
McCain sticking his neck out last year accomplished...nothing for him politically.
Ok, well republicans have not been winning PA for starters. As we saw this year, no blue states ended up considering switching to red.
If we now lose CO, NV and NM to demographic changes, how do we win?
Also, you assume that when whites are a minority, the other “minorities” will not be increasing and moving around state to state.
Plus add in that all the illegals are likely to become citizens, and Obama will be welcoming in more illegals by the proverbial boatloads.
We have seen a steady loss of conservative states over the last 30 years. NJ and others used to be available in the republican column. California, for that matter. Sometimes even NY. Those days are gone.
Wow, that was dark of me.
Even it is an early night, I won't be able to sleep knowing the nightmare we will be facing.
I figured we would lose the second it was clear McCain was the nominee. I gained some hope, not from Obama mind you, when Palin was added to the ticket. But lets face the facts that it would take at least two men to drag that corpse of a candidate McCain across the finish line. For a guy who “loves his country”, and I believe he really does, he sure let his ambition screw us good this year. Thanks, again, John.
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