Posted on 10/20/2008 9:19:09 AM PDT by MittFan08
Oh noes Oh noes....
WTH is going on VA, is a huge population in the northern part of the state (outside DC) full of libs and immigrants. Something else — I’m next door in MD (nobody wastes ad money on us) but we get DC channels aimed at VA and they’re running Obama ads like crazy. I can count on one hand the number of McCain ads I’ve seen; I can easily see 8 or 10 Obama commercials in a single evening. And as my husband says, if you’re stupid and don’t know any of the details, his ads look and sound really good.
With his spending being what it is, I have been wondering if Osama is “head-faking” in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia to try to get McCain on the defensive and take his attention away from Pennsylvania and Colorado.
Not the confidence man, who just howls in laughter at his deceptions working.
How could there have been a swing of 18% (from Bush winning by 8%, now McCain trailing by 10%) since 2004?
McCain may be trailing, but by 10%? This is really odd.
How predictable/reliable historically is Ras Poll people,
please provide some insight!
Thanks.
UpstateNYConservative
Since Oct 10, 2008
That's why the poll was published in the first place, to deflate your enthusiasm.
I'm guessing McCain knows the importance of Virginia to his election, and that he would be spending all of his time (or Sarah's) there if his polling was dire.
Of course, it's possible that his polling in all of the battleground states is dire, in which case, he'll just have to play out the string. My guess, though, is that the national polling would not be showing a narrowing race with this kind of margin in the states, and that this poll is likely oversampling Dems based on registrations. IIRC, Bush overperformed his polling in Virginia in 2000 and 2004.
National polls have been all over the place but they consistently show Obama ahead, whether its by a 9 points or 2 points. That can’t be good news - you have to filter the facts through your FR Decoder Ring in order to divine anything positive from the polls.
Obama can’t nail it shut, it seems, though he remains just ahead. While some may find comfort in that, McCain can’t nail it shut either and of the two, Obama consistently polls better.
There is no satisfaction in Obama polling 10 points ahead but on election day wins the state by 3 points. He still wins all the electoral votes.
It would be nice if McCain were actually ahead in any of these polls, but he hasn’t been for a month.
Was Virginia an Operation Chaos state, thus making the percentage of democrats larger in the polls?
Several months ago it was reported on FOX that three counties in southern Virginia had lost their D committee chairperson. They had resigned and were supporting McCain. What's happening there now?
Please, stop with the PUMA garbage. They may be 1% of the vote- if that. They’ll go for ZeroH in droves.
How could two respected polls be so freaking different? I don’t get it.
This sample is bigger and has no internals but the numbers are similar to previous elections:
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/17/aol-straw-poll-oct-17-24/
Where did Sabato say this? As hard as it is to admit, he was dead on in 2006.
You have a link to an article where Sabato said that? If that is correct then it is a good sign. A lot of people think Sabato leans Dem but he has been quite accurate in the past. What is making these poll numbers look so skewed if 0bama’s support in VA is lower than they indicate?
I forget what the date was on that M-D poll with McCain up a bit in VA. It was at least several days I think so I suppose the “news” media will play up this big 0 lead.
Wasn’t there a univ. poll just a few days ago with 0bama up only 6 in which they had a very large Dem oversample? A lot of doubt was cast on that one. If that had a spread of only 6 then this gap of 10 sounds inaccurate. I hope.
We do not have more registered Democrats in VA.
If McCain wins there. That is not a sure thing.
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