Posted on 10/20/2008 9:19:09 AM PDT by MittFan08
I thought the black vote already turned out in very high numbers as it was. An 8% win for Bush in 2004 means that he would have to turn out an additional 200,000 or so black voters. That seems like long odds to do that.
The concern of some in VA about this election cycle has to do with how many flaming liberals have moved to the state since the last election. Even some of the more rural areas have seen an influx of liberal northerners who’ve purchased retirement homes here.
As soon as they get here, they set about trying to remake the rural area into their native cesspool. It’s rather annoying. If they liked their previous zip code so much, perhaps they should go back.
They must not be in the defense sector. All the guvvies I work with are staunch conservatives.
I think you are forgetting New Mexico here, which Rasmussen showed to go to Obama with a 13% margin. If Obama indeed gets the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, he gets 264 EVs and needs only 5 more EVs to win. That could be Nevada with its 5 EVs or any of the other battleground states. If some here are correct and PA goes to McCain (which I believe to look impossible, but for argument’s sakes) then McCain has a little more breathing room and could actually lose Virginia (but none of the other states) to survive.
“I forget what the date was on that M-D poll with McCain up a bit in VA. It was at least several days I think so I suppose the “news” media will play up this big 0 lead.”
That MD poll is pretty old - 9/29-10/01.
Since then it has been a consistent Obama lead in VA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html#polls
They were in the defense sector -- mostly DCMA types.
I didn’t say anyone was wrong in supporting McCain. Just giving a clear opinion on the race as it stands now. You may not like the conclusion, but that doesn’t make my opinion any less correct.
I am voting for McCain. Just looking at the election as it stands today. I expect McCain to pull it out in the end, with pretty much the same electoral map as Dubya had in 2004, minus a few smaller states. 280 EVs sounds right.
But if the election was helped today, it’s a powerful Obama win. Don’t hey upset - it’s just the way it looks now.
I don’t think the polls are silly and never did. I think when you look at all the polls and most of them tell the same basic story, that the truth is reflected, even if the numbers aren’t exact.
When you do that to the races now, you see all of them show Obama ahead, and most of them showing it relatively close. I don’t doubt that’s the basic truth as it stands today. It could change, sure. But the last minute is now, not two weeks from today.
Dismissing polls was in fashion on FR during the 2006 election season. Those polls were basically right, after all. I don’t see how all the polls that tell the same basic story can be dismissed, unless there is serious denial going on.
No, I never said all is lost. I don’t believe that. I do think it helps to look at the information we have with clarity, though. Not negativity, but clarity.
Because the last presidential election it was 37 rep, 37 Dem.
The pollsters are oversampling Dems by +6 to +14.
This kind of BS polling is going to result in riots when Obama loses. The only reason they could possibly have to believe that somehow the Democrats will turnout in historical numbers is ACORN fraudulent registrations. These registrations are being thrown out by the thousands, and all those non-persons will not be voting on November 4th. These registrations will not translate to votes, they never have, and never will.
Amen!
I agree with you but at least consider the old likely voter models don’t apply in this election and its very possible that turnout is 30% GOP and 40% dem, 30% Independent, in which case McCain loses in a squash.
Is it likely? No, I wouldn’t say that. It it at least as likely that the traditional likely voter model is as likely to happen as the expanded voter model? I reluctantly say ‘yes.’
It’s never happened before, though. This is an unusual election.
Also, I don’t think there will be rioting following a McCain win. To believe that imputes a feral nature to black and other minority voters. I don’t think that’s right.
Moonbats will be walking into funeral pyres, for sure. That’s not quite a riot, though. :-)
But ALL info you hear about 'polls' are quite accurate!
--'BamaDude(Ignore the man behind the curtain.)
Nice tagline! ;^)
My thoughts exactly!
Nothing else happened and McCain went from 44% to 58%, and Obama went from 52% to 47% (MOE 8%).
Astounding!
You’ll recall on election day in 2004, Virginia was too close to call due to exit polls which turned out to be a load of bullcrap - Bush by 8%. So, polling is not reliable in Virginia.
Exactly.
Rasmussen is actively shilling for Obama. This poll may be part of it.
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