Posted on 10/18/2008 7:40:15 PM PDT by jeltz25
Polls suggest a dead heat. Even Republican organizers concede the Democratic senator has benefited from his performance in the three presidential debates.
And a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states
(Excerpt) Read more at cbc.ca ...
Agree - why should this year be any different?
Kerry had his flaws but everyone pretty much knew who he was and windsurfing and stuffing a sock in Tereza’s mouth was the biggest stuff going.
Now we have ACORN, Ayers, Rezko singing like a bird, and a Socialist candidate who hasn’t produced a valid birth certificate.
Yep, very winnable. Stay tuned, I think John McCain believe in the “surge principal” for more than Iraq.
Got in late today, but I saw the crowd in St Louis for Obama on TV. I hope they had some real great entertainment there, if not I’d be worried.
Relax. Illinois is right across the river.
Look, I think given everything going on especially with the economy this is the toughest election for the GOP since 1964. There’s really no way any Republican should have a shot. I can’t imagine any other nominee doing any better than McCain is, the others would be doing much worse.
When you look at the dems having +10 party ID, the increased black vote going 100% for Obama, the continued decrease in the white vote(from 81% in 2000 to probably 75-76% this year, it was 85% in 1988 when Bush 41 won), all the metrics favor the dems big time. And that’s not even talking about the 3rd term, Bush’s 25% approval, the market losing 35% in a matter of weeks, unemployment cointinuing to rise, the media trumpeting a new Depression every day for a month, Obama spending more than any other candidate in human history in any country at any time and crushing McCain by 3 or 4 to 1 in spending, the media going all out to elect Obama, etc...
I’ll look at the #s McCain pulls. If he can get 90%+ Republicans, 80%+ conservatives, 60%+ gun owners, 70% pro lifers, close to 60% of whites, he’ll have done all he can and it may just be there arent enough voters out there this year.
In 2004, Kerry and the dems exceeded all their targets in every state, they got everyone and more to the polls that they needed to win. We just got more of them. The reverse may happen this year.
and even Kerry got 48.3% and came within a handful of votes in Ohio of winning. Scary, isn’t it?
As SH would say, “Let not your heart be troubled”. Get out your atlas friend and look where he really was-IN HIS HOME STATE!!! East St. Louis right across the MO-IL border. I’d bet my bottom dollar most of those people were from the IL side. Even if they were’nt, St. Louis is the bluest part of MO. He conveniently was on the MO side to confuse people like you into thinking he’s gonna take MO. He ain’t. Believe me I know. I was born in MO, and my relatives there(yellow dog democrats) tell me a much different story.
“Got in late today, but I saw the crowd in St Louis for Obama on TV. I hope they had some real great entertainment there, if not I’d be worried.”
Mondale drew 100,000, Kerry drew 100,000.
Both losers.
The mainstream media came up with more dirt on Joe the Plumber in 24 hours than it has done on BO in 2 years.
Thnx for posting this :)
You are ruining the wailing defeatist orgy by giving perspective to today’s polls. Shame on you....:)
McCain will win if he gets more than 60% of the White vote.
Obama will win if he gets more than 40% of the White vote.
I did my calculations and I am absolutley certain of this.
Lots of Kerry voters won’t be going for Obama this year. There are lots of “undecideds” out there and my gut tells me most won’t be going for Obama.
To be more specific, East St. louis is right across the river and if it weren't for that and Chicago, Illinois would be a red state.
More than that.
In 1996,2000 and 2004, on election day I was resigned to the idea that the dems would win. In 04, leaks in the exit polls caused a bit of a crash on wall street as traders got nervous when they thought Kerry would win.
In all 3 elections, the Republicans did much better than expected and won the last 2.
These polls aren’t nearly as reliable as they are touted to be.
Go to the polls, vote for the best man running. That’s all that anyone can do.
I’d agree with that. But in a great year in 2004 W got only 58% of the white vote. McCain was clearly on track to get it before this whole economic mess started in Spetember, but I wonder if he can now. I still think he can. But it’ll be tough.
Seems that way in Pa too.. Few dems I know, don’t like O at all.. couple because of his race. Which I thought was pretty sad even coming from a dem.
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