Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win

NewsMax ^ | 10-29-04

[Chet 99]

Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win

Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com

Friday, Oct. 29, 2004

One of the nation’s most respected pollsters predicts that John Kerry will win the presidency Tuesday.

Zogby gave his take on the heated presidential contest to New York Daily News columnist Sydney Zion in Friday’s paper.

"It's close," Zogby said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."

[Gondring]

I think Obama will beat Kerry.

[DiogenesLaertius]

Zogby was way off in 2004 and predicted a solid Kerry win. It always tilted heavily pro-kerry until election day.

Sadly, its one of the most pro-Mccain pollsters now. I believe his registration numbers for D/R are 38/36 respectively which is why its so close for zogby versus everyone else.

I’m not holding my breath over his results though.

[Thane_Banquo]

When pollsters make errors, for some strange reason those errors always seem to favor the Democrat. Never have pollsters dramatically overstated a Republican’s support. Think about it.

[jveritas]

Another great find from 2004 :)

[Thane_Banquo]

President Kerry has a pretty good ground game in PA and OH.

[PleaseNoMore]

This is what I'm getting from the Obama campaign...

Dear XXXXXXXX,

Barack is up in the polls right now, but a lot can happen in the next three weeks.

In October of 2000, Al Gore was up by double digits -- and it all came down to a handful of votes in a single state.

This year, that state could be North Carolina -- and you have a unique opportunity to make the difference for Barack.

They are reminding folks of the previous poll predictions and telling them not to be too confident.

[Doug TX]

Luntz just said bho is next president.

He’s brilliant....Luntz has the dems thinking he’s a repub.

[ken21]

i heard rasmussen on the radio today,

and i thought he was lying.

[dr_who]

What did Rasmussen predict?

[TornadoAlley3]

As dry and listless as that reality-check may sound, Zogby is not above having some fun with this most pragmatic tool of political science.

For instance, Zogby revealed to The New Yorker magazine that his polls include the Oz question: “You live in the Land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who’s all brains and no heart, and the Scarecrow, who’s got all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?”

[HawaiianGecko]

"Zogby was way off in 2004 and predicted a solid Kerry win. It always tilted heavily pro-kerry until election day."

He Did?  Scan the list for "zogby" and I believe they all say Bush +something ....

   

RealClearPolitics Poll Average^SM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	FINAL	50.0%	48.5%	1.0%	Bush +1.5
RCP Average	10/27 - 11/1	48.9%	47.4%	0.9%	Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV)	11/1	49%	50%	0%	Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/31 - 11/1	50%	46%	0%	Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV)	10/30 - 11/1	50.1%	48.0%	1.1%	Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV)	10/29 - 11/1	49%	47%	1%	Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV)	10/29 - 11/1	49%	48%	2%	Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV)	10/30 - 10/31	46%	48%	1%	Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)	10/29 - 10/31	48%	47%	1%	Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*	10/29 - 10/31	49%	49%	1%	TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)	10/29 - 10/31	48%	47%	1%	Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**	10/28 - 10/31	49%	48%	0%	Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV)	10/28 - 10/30	48%	48%	1%	TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV)	10/28 - 10/30	49%	46%	1%	Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV)	10/27 - 10/30	51%	48%	1%	Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV)	10/27 - 10/29	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/25 - 10/28	51%	46%	0%	Bush +5
ICR (741 LV)	10/22 - 10/26	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)	10/22 - 10/24	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
Los Angeles Times (881 LV)	10/21 - 10/24	48%	48%	1%	TIE
Newsweek (880 LV)	10/21 - 10/22	48%	46%	1%	Bush +2
Time (803 LV)	10/19 - 10/21	51%	46%	2%	Bush +5
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/18 - 10/21	49%	45%	1%	Bush +4
AP-Ipsos (976 LV)	10/18 - 10/20	46%	49%	2%	Kerry +3
Marist (772 LV w/leaners)	10/17 - 10/19	49%	48%	1%	Bush +1
FOX News (1000 LV)	10/17 - 10/18	49%	42%	2%	Bush +7
Pew Research (1070 LV)	10/15 - 10/19	47%	47%	1%	TIE
ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV)	10/16 - 10/18	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners)	10/16 - 10/18	48%	48%	1%	TIE
Harris (820 LV)***	10/14 - 10/17	49.5%	44.5%	1%	Bush +5
CBS/NY Times (678 LV)	10/14 - 10/17	47%	45%	2%	Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	52%	44%	1%	Bush +8
Time (865 LV w/leaners)	10/14 - 10/15	48%	47%	3%	Bush +1
Newsweek (880 LV)	10/14 - 10/15	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/11 - 10/14	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV)	10/11 - 10/13	48%	48%	1%	TIE
Zogby (1223 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	45%	45%	2%	TIE
CBS News (760 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
ICR (763 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)	10/9 - 10/10	48%	49%	1%	Kerry +1
Time (886 LV w/leaners)	10/6 - 10/7	46%	45%	4%	Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV)	10/3 - 10/7	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)	10/4 - 10/6	46%	50%	2%	Kerry +4
Marist (642 LV)	10/4 - 10/5	49%	46%	1%	Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV)	10/3 - 10/4	47%	45%	1%	Bush +2
ICR (762 LV)	10/1 - 10/5	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
ARG (800 LV)	10/2 - 10/4	46%	46%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (1169 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
CBS News/NYT (561 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	47%	47%	1%	TIE
Zogby (1036 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	46%	43%	2%	Bush +3
Pew Research (801 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	44%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	49%	1%	TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV)	9/30 - 10/2	45%	47%	2%	Kerry +2
SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)	9/27 - 10/2	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/27 - 9/30	51%	44%	1%	Bush +7
LA Times (1100 LV)	9/25 - 9/28	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)	9/24 - 9/26	52%	44%	3%	Bush +8
IBD/TIPP (649 LV)	9/22 - 9/27	45%	45%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (810 LV)	9/23 - 9/26	51%	45%	1%	Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV)	9/22 - 9/26	48%	40%	2%	Bush +8
Time (877 LV)	9/21 - 9/23	48%	42%	5%	Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV)	9/21 - 9/22	46%	42%	1%	Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/20 - 9/23	50%	45%	0%	Bush +5
Marist (630 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	50%	44%	2%	Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	51%	42%	2%	Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV)	9/17 - 9/21	45%	42%	3%	Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)	9/17 - 9/19	50%	46%	1%	Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV)	9/17 - 9/19	46%	43%	1%	Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV)	9/14 - 9/18	45%	42%	2%	Bush +3
ARG (LV)	9/7 - 9/21	47%	46%	1%	Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV)	9/12 - 9/16	50%	41%	3%	Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)	9/13 - 9/15	54%	40%	3%	Bush +14
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/12 - 9/15	49%	45%	1%	Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV)	9/11 - 9/14	47%	46%	1%	Bush +1
Harris (867 LV)	9/9 - 9/13	47%	48%	2%	Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV)	9/9 - 9/10	49%	43%	2%	Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV)	9/7 - 9/12	46%	46%	3%	TIE
Zogby (1018 LV)	9/8 - 9/9	46%	42%	2%	Bush +4
Time (857 LV)	9/7 - 9/9	52%	41%	3%	Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV)	9/7 - 9/9	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)	9/7 - 9/8	47%	43%	3%	Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV)	9/6 - 9/8	52%	43%	2%	Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV)	9/8 - 9/10	54%	38%	2%	Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV)	9/6 - 9/8	49%	42%	1%	Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)	9/3 - 9/5	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV)	9/2 - 9/3	52%	41%	3%	Bush +11

 

 

[latina4dubya]

i heard rasmussen on the radio today,

i was polled by Rasmussen today... in addition to the standard questions, the recording asked questions regarding Colin Powell... if i favored him... if his endorsement of either candidate would sway my vote...

[HamiltonJay]

38 to 36 is more realistic turnout expectations.

everyone else is off by leaps and bounds.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Now find out how much they sampled the parties back then.

Today, nearly all of them are oversampling or over weighting dem turnout.

[jveritas]

From Frank Lutz on October 15 2004:

Its time for Bush to get worried , By Frank Luntz , October 15, 2004

[ken21]

why is colin powell so tardy in endorsing a candidate?

[Edit35]

why is colin powell so tardy in endorsing a candidate?

He's still searching for his inner roots.

And is discovering they are not necessarily as patriotic American as previously thought.

[des]

Impact. He remains quite disgruntled.
Sad... HE COULD HAVE BEEN PRESIDENT in 2000.

[ken21]

maybe powell’ll have george tenet over for din-din

to discuss old times!

no?