Posted on 10/17/2008 12:51:19 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Red South, It is certainly a Red vs Blue country but part of what you forget is that GHWB won 426 EVs. Many people assume that GWB in 2000 and 2004 IS the norm. It is NOT. The country was at an even division for 2 election cycles. It will not be in this one. Keep in mind that just 2-3 extra points by GWB would have gotten him 60 - 100 extra EVs in 2004.
McCain/Palin will have to settle for 535 electoral votes from 50 states. Obama gets the rest.
Moderator: Will you please change my original post to say McCain: 339.
It turns out that I am dyslexic typist. Darn! First a typo in the title and now a typo in the main body. I was so focused on copying my hand written notes that I did not compare the final copy.
My apologies to all who were confused by the “new” math.
EV: McCain 274; Obama 264 (JM gets all the 2004 red states save IA and NM)
PV: McCain 49.4; Obama 48.6
Turnout: R 35; D 39; I 26
redangus — don’t take the fact that the networks “can’t call” IN or KY for McCain early as necessarily bad news. In 2004 the networks were so spooked by the bogus exit polls that they weren’t calling obvious Bush states for him until well into the evening. Someone once posted an interesting chart that showed how long it took them to call some deep red states for Bush.
Obama voters will be too self-absorbed, preoccupied, and arrogant to vote on the 4th. They’ll assume it’s a “done deal” according to the media. McCain/Palin supporters will stand in line all day to vote, and regardless of where they’re at on the “love scale” (voting against Obama or for our side), they will definitely show up.
I think McCain 399 sounds about right. I do not believe it’s going to be close at all. I think the margin will be wide, for our side. Go red!
I develop “smart” apps that do trend predictions. We typically use them for retail clients. However, as a side hobby, I have been using them for election predictions.
We use various “weights” to compensate for trends. For example, if someone is a fine arts major in a major city he is likely to vote Democratic. Someone who is a Doctor is more likely to vote Republican (due to lawsuit abuse etc).
By themselves none of these weights are perfect. For example, 10% of African Americans will vote for McCain. However, if you get about 200-250 data points together then you start seeing a trend.
Here is a good example. George Bush senior won 40 states in 1988 and yet lost the 1992 election. A detailed analysis of the voters will show that voters with certain “triggers” moved over to Perot (mostly).
Similarly in 2000 and then 2004 some natural Republicans voted for a Democrat. Many of these were voters for whom one trigger (in some cases for example, the social conservatism) over-rode another issue (in this example, economic conservatism)
So, if you can pull in a lot of retail based data (and trust me, we can do a profile of just about anyone), you can start seeing what the trigger points are.
I do not claim to have solved this problem yet. If and when I do, I will be the greatest poll predictor in the world :)
However, there are some broad secular triggers that I can see working here. So, as crude as my software is today, I do feel that I see a 4-5 point victory for McCain.
That is why I put this thread up today with today’s date. The polls are still broadly against McCain today. So no one can accuse me of stating the obvious.
The only state that I did not include in the McCain “win” column despite my certainty that it will show up in the Win column is WI because for some reason my software shows that as a Obama win.
I think IN will be in early for McCain. I don’t see how Obama can win here. They claim it is close, but this was a Hillary state in the primaries, and I’ve seen only two Obama signs in our county. As noted by Father Morris, there are noticeably fewer signs of all types this year. In our area there haven’t been any Obama thugs in evidence, but we’re properly prepared should they come to the “sticks”
Nov 4 placemarker
Okay, I was working on this schedule of how election night would go and the media would spin it. Not sure if it’s too early to post this or not, but look for 11:00 PM to be the climax of the Obmaa spin zone.
POLL CLOSINGS: 7 PM:EST
STATES QUICKLY CALLED
MCCAIN (KY, GA, SC) 31
OBAMA (VT) 3
POLL CLOSINGS 730PM EST
MCCAIN (WV) 36
OBAMA (NONE) 3
POLL CLOSINGS 8:00 PM
MCCAIN (AL, KS, MS, OK, TN) 75
OBAMA (CT, DE, DC, IL, ME (3 OF 4), MD, MA, , NJ 77
POLL CLOSINGS 8:30 PM
MCCAIN (AR) 81
OBAMA (NONE) 77
POLL CLOSINGS 9:00 PM
MCCAIN (AZ, LA, NE, SD, TX, WY) 145
*NOTE - NOT SURE TEXAS CAN BE CALLED AT 8PM OR NOT, BUT EVEN IF IT COULD BE LOOK FOR THEM TO NOT CALL IT UNTIL 9 TO GIVE OBAMA EDGE IN ELECTORAL COUNT*
OBAMA (NY, RI) + MAINE’S 2CD SHOULD BE KNOWN BY NOW - 113
POLL CLOSINGS 10:00 PM
MCCAIN (ID, MT, ND, UT) 169 + (IN, NC CALLED ) 186
OBAMA (NONE) 113
BY THIS TIME (ASSUMING LAKE COUNTY HAS FINISHED THEIR FRAUDULENT BALLOTS, A MCCAIN WIN SHOULD BE PROJECTED FOR IN BY THIS TIME. THE FATE OF NC SHOULD ALSO BE KNOWN AND HOPEFULLY WILL GO TO MCCAIN. BLUE MIDWESTERN STATES CONTINUE TO BE COUNTED AND PILED TO OBAMA AT THE 11PM HOUR.
POLL CLOSINGS 11:00 PM (THE HOUR OF OBAMA)
MCCAIN (THE LOOONG HOUR AND WAIT) BY NOW VA AND MO SHOULD BE CALLED, BUT 11:00 IS THE TIME OBAMA MAKES THE GAIN AND THE MSM RUNS WITH IT.
(MO, VA CALLED) 210
OBAMA (CA, HI, OR, WA,) 190 + (IA, MI CALLED) 214
CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT
MCCAIN (AK) 213
OBAMA (NONE) - MN PROBABLY CALLED 224
FROM HERE, I HAVE NO IDEA. THE REASONING IS THE BETTER MCCAIN DOES IN FL, OH, AND PA, THE LONGER THE MSM WILL WAIT TO CALL A STATE
I agree that this could happen.
Ping me when you find it. I was just looking for it.
My map has McCain 335, Obama 203.
John, you and I are off by 4. I had McCain at 339. Look at my post around 2 weeks ago titled “ELECTION PREDICTION”. I lay out my methodology there
Oh! You DID post to that!
Sorry! How did you find this post?
Just go and vote for Palin/mccain.
I recalled at least one post about predictions and wanted to get mine out there. Just searched titles for “predictions”.
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