Posted on 10/17/2008 11:19:16 AM PDT by Chet 99
GALLUP POLL LIKELY VOTERS STAY 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN FOR SECOND DAY...
If McCain pulls this off, I wonder if Joe will get any credit and/or go into the history books...
You have to read the polls closely. Usually they take a pool of about 3000 voters and poll them. But, they dont take into account that Obama will not have about 20% of dem votes (Hillary votes and people that wont vote for a black person no matter if he is a republican or a democrat). That will be a reduction of about 4-6% points in the final tally. Even the most scientifically accurate pollster can not capture this anomaly. Best poll is on the election day Nov,4.
National Polls Mean NOTHING. McCain is behind in VA, OH, FL and NH.
Yeah. I’m listening to KFYI out of Phoenix. It’s an hour behind on the Limbaugh show. Rush is talking about this right now. After McCain introduced Obama, I turned the channel.
the interesting thing is that even under the “traditional likely voter” model, Gallup has goosed the projected turnout to 60% - 5% higher than 2004, which was a huge turnout year.
I’d be curious to see the numbers if they lowered the projection to 55%
You are correct, of course. Still, thanks for pissing in our Wheaties.
Re: The events in Ohio...
My atty husband says that we all need to contact the Attorney Generals office and demand a lawsuit to stop this fraud. Here is the link for the contact info:
http://www.ag.state.oh.us/contact/index.asp
The MSM is in overdrive trying to hype up the god Obama. This sick MSM animals are going after Joe the Plumber. How pathetic.
I have never seen propaganda like this. It is only going to get rockier and the polls may be all over the place so be prepared.
Donate & volunteer to McCain-Palin 2008.
For the last 2 weeks I have been convinced McCain lost the election, but now, because of several factors that have nothing 2 do with the current tightening of the polls, I am convinced McCain is very close putting this thing away.
If you don’t believe me, watch the hysteria that is starting to take place among Hussein’s comrades in the media and the Democrat party-they see a sure victory slipping out of their grasp.
The problem is the EVs. Obama is ahead by 130 electoral votes.
McCain is seriously courting Pennsylvania (21 evs), which changes the electoral calculus in the west (CO, NM). I think we’re going to be okay in NV. MN and WI still in play. FL, NC, MO coming back.
Here is the dirty little secret that the MSM won’t report and that the BO people won’t admit: BO is hemorraging votes.
Joe the Plumber may have saved us.
National and state polls trend together. National polls generally are followed by movement in state polls, which generally aren’t taken as often as the nationals. This is a good sign. In fact, I suspect the reason he’s doing better in national polls is precisely because he is doing better in these states. It ain’t like he’s picking up a ton of votes in Pennsylvania or Michigan.
State polls are a lagging indicator.
If it's any number greater than zero, with a Dow at 9054 (just now), and outspending McCain 8:1, stick a fork in BMO.
49-1=48; 47+1=48.
Wrong, bud. National polls are leading indicators, state polls are lagging. I can explain if you'd like.
Joe should get the Lincoln Bedroom for the duration...also, the White House’s MAIN PLUMBER!
49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN. Great news. We all know this means McCain is actually leading!
Humbly asking here ... could you please explain how state polls lag national ones? Thanks!
Not if he's only up 2-3% nationally. That EV lead corresponds to about a 7-8% Obama lead in the popular vote. Most state polls are lagging McCain's recent surge.
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