California polls shock gay marriage supporters

Financial Times ^ | October 14 2008 | Kevin Allison

[nickcarraway]

Supporters of gay marriage in California are scrambling to raise funds in response to an unexpectedly strong campaign by Christian conservatives and others to amend the state constitution and ban the practice.

Proposition 8, a state ballot initiative up for a vote on November 4, would amend the state constitution so that “only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognised in California”.

Gay rights activists were shocked when a public opinion poll published this month found 47 per cent of respondents favoured the measure, with 42 per cent opposed and 10 per cent undecided. The result was based on polls conducted through the summer in this usually liberal-minded state.

A spokesman for “No on 8”, the group leading the charge against the proposed amendment, said it had been caught off-guard by a television advertisement blitz by gay marriage opponents. “They have raised a tremendous amount of money, and as a result they have significantly out-bought us on TV,” said Steve Schmidt. “Every time somebody sees one of our ads, they’ve seen two of theirs.”

Mr Schmidt said more than 11,000 gay couples had tied the knot in California since May, when the state’s supreme court struck down two laws that limited marriage to unions between a man and a woman in a split decision. The move effectively cleared the way for local authorities to begin issuing marriage licences to gay couples.

The advertising campaign backing the proposition, launched last month, features footage of San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom speaking before supporters about gay marriage, saying “The door’s wide open now. It’s gonna happen, whether you like it or not.”

As of last week, gay marriage opponents had raised more than $19.7m, compared with $18.5m raised by gay marriage supporters, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times.

Brad Pitt, the actor, and Steven Spielberg, the film director, are among those who have contributed large sums to the “No on 8” campaign. Christian groups, including the Mormon church, are among the biggest financial supporters of the marriage ban.

Mr Schmidt played down suggestions that an expected high turnout on election day by African-American voters supporting Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama could be contributing to the “Yes on Proposition 8” campaign’s strong performance at the polls.

“There is no question that African-American and Latino communities are social conservative communities,” Mr Schmidt said.

But he added that younger voters – among whom Mr Obama has also performed well – tended to have more favourable views towards same-sex marriage.

[redstateconfidential]

Hmmm, Kalifornia, how many electoral college votes?

[nobama08]

My country is being destroyed from within.

[goldstategop]

Its the values, stupid. Promoting same sex marriage does not resonate well among even Democrat leaning voters like Blacks and Hispanics. The NO side does NOT get it!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

55. We'll lose California but we'll win the battle to protect traditional marriage.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[comebacknewt]

As of today, America is still a slightly center-right country.

Sadly, if we continue on our current path and elect a Socialist president and give him huge majorities in Congress, I'm not sure we will be able to truthfully say that any more.

I hope the American people are jolted back to their senses before it is too late.

[gotribe]

That bodes well for the presidential race. Let’s get another gay rights initiative or two on the ballot.

[beezdotcom]

“There is no question that African-American and Latino communities are social conservative communities,” Mr Schmidt said.

I know what he means when he says this...but there is deep, deep irony in the fact that they certainly don't vote for politicians who are social conservatives.

[goldstategop]

The point is no one knows what is going to happen next month. Polls are only that - snapshots of a given moment in time.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[South40]

This means nothing.

Prop 22 was passed with 62% of the vote in 2000 and here we are again.

[Political Junkie Too]

It doesn't matter. We all know that, in the end, one judge will overturn it.

-PJ

[Chicos_Bail_Bonds]

I’ll say it again. The perfect ad they should run is showing Obama and Biden at the debates saying they believe marriage is between a man and a woman. Then show Palin and McCain saying the same thing.

Tie it up in a bow at the end with, “something everyone can agree on”. It would pass with 65%. They don’t need approval from the candidates to do this, as they are public figures. It comes right from their mouths and would put the left totally in a hole they couldn’t recover.

I’ve sent this suggestion to their campaign but no response. I do marketing for a living for a Fortune 500 company - this is a slam dunk ad idea (IMHO).

[RetiredArmy]

Rush read the results of some poll taken by a group that took the poll in 2000 and again in 2004 before the election. The results was that something like 55 or 60% of people identified themselves as either some what conservative or conservative and only 35% said they were liberals. They have to cheat to win. Otherwise, they would get their butts kicked every election. Cheat, steal, lie, the only way dimocrats and Marxists can win.

[Chet 99]

A lot of outsiders don’t understand California. It is more conservative than many believe. The GOP party brand has been devastated in CA, but conservative principles have not. Not yet at least.

[goldstategop]

They are economic liberals and socially conservative. That describes a lot of blue collar working families. They are inclined to back Obama but those same people oppose the homosexual agenda.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[mkcc30]

“There is no question that African-American and Latino communities are social conservative communities,” Mr Schmidt said.

Then why don’t they vote for McCain! Obama will make sure all immoral and amoral behaviour is accepted and legal.

I guess their “morals” are just superficial.

[goldstategop]

That was a statute. This is a constitutional amendment. It would overrule the California Supreme Court's May decision to legalize same sex marriage in the state.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Question_Assumptions]

All of that money being pumped into California to promote that proposal should be going to John McCain and the RNC because of Obama gets to nominate 2-3 Supreme Court justices, it’s only a matter of time before they “find” a right to homosexual marriage in the Constitution and this becomes the law of the land for all 50 states, just like Roe and abortion.

[Know et al]

We'll lose California but we'll win the battle to protect traditional marriage.

Until the 9th circus gets involved.

[mrmargaritaville]

The way I see it-the left is working hard to get the minorities (Blacks and Hispanics)out for osamaobama on Nov 4-well the down side is that those groups tend to view homosexuality negatively. So while the’re pulling the lever “for” the missiah, they’re also going to pull it “against” gay marriage.