Skip to comments.Internal Obama Poll Reports He Is Up By 2 In Pennsylvania
Posted on 10/14/2008 2:58:15 PM PDT by Born ConservativeEdited on 10/14/2008 5:44:49 PM PDT by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olan who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.
Sean Smith, who is heading Obama's Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this. Sean would not deny that the internal poll showed this, and his words were carefully chosen.
“Being a Pennsylvanian this disgusts me that citizens of my State would hate America so much as to inflict this dangerous socialist on us all.”
Which is exactly how the residents of Massachusetts SHOULD feel in enabling the national infestation of the ghastly trifecta of:
Yes that spread the wealth comment to the plumber should have dragged him down. McCain and Palin have to play it up. I tend to think back in the 1980s before journalism died that even some mainstream media outlets would have made an issue of that.
This 2 point internal is very encouraging if it is correct but I find it a little hard to believe that info got out. Did someone leak it? Why would they send what sounds like a private email to a radio guy?
Is it ever possible for Our Team to be optimistic? ABC 6 is just saying we are behind in the high double digits (Vernon ODEM, Star Reporter)! That we now know their own internals show a dead heat!! YES!!! A DEAD HEAT!! and the RATS are factoring in their PHILLY FRAUD!!
You may want to stick your head in the mud! But this is FANTASTIC NEWS for US PENNSY RED BLOODS that LOVE Our RELIGION, GUNS, FAMILY, AND OUR COUNTRY!
AND WE HATE AND DETEST FRAUDS AND LIARS LIKE OBAMA!!
Maybe Republicans perform better under pressure? I tend to believe that, in general. Maybe that’s why.
Having been both a successful candidate and a campaign manager of a few local & regional races here in Minnesota, I can attest to the fact that you never telegraph negative internal polling numbers to the press. I seriously doubt McCain’s people would be so free with discussing being down 6 points if this was actually the case. So either McCain’s folks have indeed thrown in the towel or else this is something else. I believe this is about whose base is fired up more. Beyond the group of Obambi cult worshipers, there are a lot of Dem-leaning folks who are ambivalent about the election but will vote if it seems like their vote will swing things. If those people believe their guy is going to win by such huge numbers it doesn’t matter - there’s a chance they don’t show up to vote at all. Looking at the numbers Palin is pulling in alone, I’m inclined to think those on the Right (and those who aren’t keen on USA going socialist) are far more scared, mad and motivated than their counterparts.
You very well could be right. Or you could be wrong. I'm looking at it this way: many of the polls are slanted towards Obama, the media is in the tank for Obama, yet Palin drew a lot more at her rally in Scranton today (a working day) than did the "big guns" rally in the same venue this past Sunday (when many had the day off) which included Biden, Hillary, and Bill. Northeast PA is Hillary country, and there are MANY Dems saying they will vote McCain. We'll know on Nov. 4.
I guess this post validates yours. I sure hope so!
I believe it. It isn’t hard to figure out. You read the poll internals for all these polls showing Obama with huge leads, you note the usual ridiculous oversample of Democrats, you re-adjust the numbers based on the state’s actual demographics and voting history, rinse and repeat as needed. And besides, I personally had PA in a dead heat.
Those of us who actually know how to read and dissect the polls are not one bit surprised by this. It also helps greatly to pay attention to where both sides actually spend their time compaigning. If you have been paying attention, you already know that both sides have recently spent a great deal of time in Pennsylvania.
If this is true it shows Dem internal polling, possibly McCain’s as well, does not assume such large Dem weighted models. 2004 was supposed to be a big year for Dems, reality, 37% Repub and 37% Dem, in 2006 the Dems had a 2 advantage. I don’t buy these grossly weighted samples that are being pushed. FYI, IBD/TIPP will be posting their newest tracking poll tomorrow. Go Mac!!!
It very well COULD be a feint, but then again, there is evidence that it may not be.
The Clintons were not just dispatched to PA (where, curiously, both McCain and Palin made appearances today) because Obama is leading by ten or more points.
Remember the post here a few days ago where someone met by chance someone from the McCain campaign who said the exact same thing-only 2 points separated the candidates?
“The only thing that bugs me about the poll suppression theory is that McCains campaign acknowledges hes down 6 nationwide (as of yesterday).”
McCain is playing possum. He’s even nationally (or even slightly ahead) and he knows it. The six points is the RCP average, which is simply an average of a bunch of polls that assume that Democrats are going to have a turnout advantage of 6-12 points over Republicans over election day. But if you believe that, here is a reality check:
The news out of Ohio so far hasn’t been too good for the Obamessiah. You can kind of figure that out just from this thread. Ohio is a few more points to the right than PA. If The One is having trouble locking down PA, then it goes to figure OH would be even more troublesome.
There’s a link in post #12 this thread.
Or a deliberate leak to sucker McCain/Palin resources into PA and away from some other blue state that is actually weaker for Obama.
[sigh] It's absolutely hopeless around here...
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