“The only thing that bugs me about the poll suppression theory is that McCain’s campaign acknowledges he’s down 6 nationwide (as of yesterday).”
McCain is playing possum. He’s even nationally (or even slightly ahead) and he knows it. The six points is the RCP average, which is simply an average of a bunch of polls that assume that Democrats are going to have a turnout advantage of 6-12 points over Republicans over election day. But if you believe that, here is a reality check:
Good data. After 1986, it really settled into a stable pattern, anywhere from R+1 to D+4. Any poll trying to sell us D+double digits is bogus.