Posted on 10/14/2008 11:16:19 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus
Really?? Do you have a link for this?
Aye, and liberals are less numerous in this country than conservatives (hard to believe, I know). If McCain really has a double-digit lead in Independents (and I see no reason to doubt it), then this really casts the rest of the numbers having Obama up by 9 in question. It's either the one or the other, but not both.
Yesterday afternoon, my informal poll showed the New York Giants destroying the Cleveland Browns and winning the Monday night game by 21 points. ;~))
It was posted 2 days ago and there were many posts about it. I will try to find the op
Those all are good points!
Those all are good points!
As were yours... Here’s a link to a previous post that breaks down what I was saying using an actual CBS poll as an example.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2097539/posts
And that was an excellent post you posted and linked to! I’ll download it when I get home this evening.
The MSM are already hinting to riots should Hussein’s lead not show up election day. I think that's what they're hoping for, riots, lots of rioting.
“....if the partisan ratio had been the same in the latter poll, that McCain would have been up 3-4%. Essentially, the AP invented a poll to show Hussein way ahead.”
LA Times/Bloomberg? I can hardly wait for the comedy. I think LA Times was the least accurate poll in 2004.
Just the next poll to come out and will be widely reported on the Bloomberg financial network. Not sure what the result. Maybe it shows good news for McCain?
Here is a good breakdown on poll manipulation. They used the Gallop poll internals as an example.
“So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?”
“Well, actually I do. There is one, and only one, possible way that such a thing can happen mathematically. And that way, is that Gallup made major changes to the political affiliation weighting from the last week to now. Gallup has significantly increased the proportional weight of Democrat response and reduced the weight of Republican response. Bear in mind that this assumes that people change the foundation of their political opinion like a showgirl changes costumes, which has no scientific basis or historical support whatsoever. “
We need to keep people's spirits up around here and not let the media achieve its objective. This thing is still winnable, but if not we need to roll up our sleeves and get to work on winning seats back in in 2010. We can't despair if we lose...another side effect the Left is hoping for, should Emperor 0 win.
you and your polls
you seem happy when it shows McCain down but not happy when the internals show McCain doing good
You’ve been told before how the media are doing their polls and why they would do them
I think the analysis looks good. One thing that’s starting to bother me is that we’re seeing polls with Obama ahead 13-14 points, yet the R weighting is only off by 7-8%. Is it possible that this discrepancy in weighting is really contributing to ALL the lead for Obama?
One thing I was wondering is, since we know the MSM are basically cooking the polls anywise, how do we really know that the internals they publish are even really accurate at all? How do we know that they aren’t contacting a pre-selected list of “Independents”, for instance, who will say “Obama” when asked? At this point, is anything possible, or is this really showing an Obama lead, even despite the adjustments for cooking?
I looked at the CBS/NYT poll that has 0 up by 14, and they upped the overall Dem sample to 38% and dropped the GOP sample to 30%(the poll we analyzed and discussed was like 35% Dem and 32% GOP). The weighting to likely voters in this pool is closer then previous ones, 11% drop off for GOP compared to 9% for the Rats. The overall voter sample is smaller then previous polls, so any changes within the data will affect a greater percentage change, then it would with a lager overall sample. This poll is huge ‘outliar’ poll. Rasmussen and Zogby have this around 4-5 points. Which is where I think this race is really at(I score +3.5 Obama, after my own arbitrary “weighting” for liberal bias). I think CBS is worried that Ayers, ACORN and the Kenya Connection could hurt Obama, and the farther ahead 0 appears to be, the more desperate McCain seems to be if/when he broaches these subjects. This is still winnable, but tonight's debate probably won't do much either way. It's the next 3 weeks(especially the final week) when the fence sitters break, and decide this thing. I'm less concerned about having 0 as Emperor, then I am about having 60 Rat Senators. The filibuster is all we'll have left to stop a Marxist/Socialist free for all.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.