Posted on 10/14/2008 5:09:38 AM PDT by tomymind
Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.
In Reno, Nevada's Washoe County, Obama leads McCain by a 46-45 percent margin, with six percent undecided. Obama posts a wider 50-44 percent lead with five percent undecided in Raleigh, North Carolina's Wake County, and another 6-point lead in Hillsborough County, Fla., where Tampa is located. There, he edges McCain 47-41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
Among the four counties tested, McCain leads in only one: Jefferson County, Colo., a populous Denver suburb. McCain is ahead there by a margin of 45-43 percent, with eight percent undecided.
At first glance, these Politico/InsiderAdvantage numbers might not look so troubling for McCain, who trailed Obama by 10 points in an ABC/Washington Post national survey, released Monday.
But these four counties are crucial battlegrounds in four of the most competitive states in the presidential race. In recent years, the Republican path to the White House has run through these areas.
In 2004, President Bush won Washoe County, Nevada's second-most populous county, by a four-point margin over Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. This year, when Obama is expected to run up a big vote lead in Las Vegas' Clark County, McCain is unlikely to be able to afford a loss in Washoe.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Based on what?
I’ll research other polls before I comment on the Bradley race. But, I lived in VA Beach in 1989 during the governor’s race between Wilder and Coleman. Wilder had a statewide consensus lead of 8 - 9 points on election day, when the votes were counted he won by less than 1%. Funny how Va is supposed to be a Battleground State this year. Don’t think so in the end.
Though not a “statistic”, this is definitely a major point.
So we'll see. I get a general sense that ALL polls are hugely oversampling Dems, and that there is a small but nevertheless important "Bradley" effect, and when the two are flushed out, it will yield a solid McCain EC win.
Save your keystrokes.
Kerry does not have an 8-point lead in OH. That is so beyond bogus. Two university polls in the last two weeks have had McCain with small leads (they are actually pretty reliable indicators)-—but there is other info on the ground showing us that Obama is in trouble here in OH, and, I suspect, in half the other states in which he “leads.”
TIPP and Zogby, TIPP was the most accurate poll in 2004. Why do you focus so much on the negative? I’m sure your predictable answer is you “only want to tell it like it is.” Your motives are well known to most here.
thank you for continuing to enlighten the moaning handwringers who are ready to throw in the towel based on polling, LS.
There are many disruptor’s coming in here posing as Conservatives. One can tell them apart, because they are skilled in making posts and are quick to attack long-time resident members.
Their main intention is to demoralize the base and they have fun posing as a Conservative when they are likely, members of Daily KOS or DU.
They remind me of ACORN. They take great pride in enabling a lie or acting out a character that is completely opposite of their true character. They are truly corrupt and take great pride in it.
I don’t think so: I just think they are all operating from an “inside the beltway” mentality-—even if they aren’t located there-—and they are believing this nonsense about a 10% Dem “likely voter” advantage, which has never, ever proven to be even remotely close historically. In 2004, after all the Howard Dean internet “revolution” and all the anti-war, Move-On stuff, the breakdown was 39%/39% Dem GOP.
no, i think LS does a valuable service. he counteracts the negativity spread by the usual suspects by enlightening with analysis and insights into the polls for the lurkers and others who may need bolstering. to not answer the moaners, is to give them power to depress.
Identify the source of this quote:
I’d love to post only positive polls. The problem is there isn’t any.”
There’s a prize!
McCain made a huge miscalculation letting the airwaves go to Obama. If someone at that campaign paid any attention at all, they would have reacted to Obama spending Millions in Florida within a day and matched him 1 for 1. Instead Obama is allowed to outspend McCain 4 to 1, even 5 to 1 in TV and radio spots.
I don’t see malarkey, just an inept campaign (so far) that is giving the opponent free reign of the airwaves and as a result is now trying to play catch up. I hope they are really getting off their behinds now and start slamming the airwaves with ads. We need McCain to start advertising the heck out of this market, the RNC to be right there with him, and 527s to start their stuff. Don’t wait until it is too late. This state is up for grabs, and McCain does not seem to really want it, judging by his spending here so far.
I don’t give a sh*t what you think my motives are. Your opinion mean nothing. The fact is that McCain’s own campaign manager says they are down ‘6 points’.
Either Steve Schmidt and all of the polls are wrong, or you and your merry band of head in the sand optimists are wrong. With all due respect, you have ZERO credibility.
ok so you are doing your best to spread the news, McCain is losing in the polls. so what? what are you hoping to accomplish? what should we do? what do you want to happen>?
But in 2002 Iwas 95% correct, missing only the SD senate seat in my calls. In 2004, I was 95% correct, missing only one close senate seat. In 2004, when people here were screaming the "sky is falling," especially after the bogus "exit polls"---anyone remember those?---I KNEW that Bush had already won OH because of an "inside metric," namely I had done poll "flushing" at a swing precinct in a swing city of the swing county in OH. Based on that, at 10:00 in the morning I "called" OH for Bush because I saw that Rove had gotten out the base---that we already had voted almost half our entire base by 10:00 in the morning, meaning we would easily hit 90%, which we did. No way a Dem wins OH with the GOP voters at 90%. That's true today.
So, what I know today is---and this could change tomorrow---there is a key metric out there that says Obama is trailing Kerry's pace in OH. (Clue: Kerry lost OH).
Save your keystrokes.
“This is a direct quote from the brand new Ohio Newspaper Poll that shows Mac + 2 over Obambi 48 - 46, this will blow away any attempts by the dems’, the MSM’s and most pollsters’ claims that dems will grossly outnumber Repubs at the polls on 11/4. For the record, the Ohio Poll and the Ohio Newspaper Poll (related) are two of the most accurate polls in the State. Help spread the word:
“We have asked a question in each Ohio Newspaper Poll whether a voter will “definitely vote” or not. In the first Ohio Newspaper Poll, Democrats and Republicans were tied on this question. In the second Ohio Newspaper Poll, Republicans report they are “definitely voting” slightly more frequently than do Democrats (48%-45%).”
Link to thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2103194/posts";
I lived in Ohio, the two most accurate polls in Ohio are the Ohio Poll and the Ohio Newspaper Poll, both associated with the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Newspaper Poll found that a majority of Likely Voters were Repubs, not the Dems. Why? If it's true that Obama and the Dems have registered do many new voters and that his voters are more motivated than McCain's (hence the grossly weighted polls we see here every day) then why does one of the most accurate polls in the State of Ohio blow that argument away, especially considering that Ohio is a bell weather battleground State?
Look, the situation is what it is. We are down (6 points according to Steve Schmidt) but it’s not over yet. All we can do is be sure to vote and hope that the RINO can keep the Marxist from taking over the White House...
RNC internals are very dismal. Just look at the difference in funding for the two campaigns. Obama has seemingly inexhaustible funds, which is why we see an Obama infomercial every 30 minutes in Prime time.
You can also bet that the media is giving Obama vast discounts on air time and McCain is getting hosed.
Several months ago, I voiced concern that this would happen, but on top of that, now we have to deal with ACORN and voter fraud like we have never seen before. And it seems like nothing is getting done about it or that it just doesn’t matter to the public.
And the MSM drones on the whole while we try to get answers.
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