Dick Morris: Dow = Gallup; McCain’s Problem

Dick Morris' Website ^ | October 10, 2008 | Dick Morris

[2ndDivisionVet]

For McCain to win this election (which he still can) the furor over the stock market will have to calm down so that popular attention can focus on Barack Obama. For all of the deluge of media that has engulfed the American people, they can only keep one subject on their mind. All media has only one focus at a time. And, if you are in the spotlight, you are almost certain to self-destruct.

Follow this election cycle. Between the summer of 2007 and the end of February of 2008, all focus was on Hillary Clinton’s ups and downs. And Obama defeated her decisively. Then in March and April of 2008, Obama was in the focus and Rev Wright and the surrounding controversy propelled Hillary to victory. Then during the summer of 2008, all eyes were on Obama and he gained. In September, McCain was on the griddle. At first his selection of Sarah Palin let him move ahead. But then his “suspension” of his campaign and subsequent complicity in the bailout package cost him his lead and moved Obama to an advantage just short of double digits.

Now the attention should logically shift to Obama. He is way ahead and McCain is nowhere to be seen. Few give McCain any chance and the debate is over whether the race is over already. This is, of course, the ideal environment for a McCain surge. All attention would normally focus on the Democrat. But it isn’t. Every American checks the market before they check the polls. The ongoing anxiety over the stock market is not only giving more and more people reason to hate the Republicans of Wall Street and their allies in Washington, but it is keeping us from focusing on Obama.

If ever the market stabilizes, Americans will be fascinated by the Ayers-Obama ties and the relationship between Farrakhan and the Democratic nominee. The increasing evidence that ACORN is committing voter fraud, registering people over and over again in anticipation of stuffing the ballot box on election day. As ACORN gets raided by the FBI, it will hurt Obama. He was general counsel to its Illinois affiliate and Obama channeled millions to the radical group when he got control over the money William Ayers got from the Annenberg Foundation.

All of these ties are damning for Obama and will reinforce the doubts that Rev. Wright first put in our minds. They will lead people to question Obama’s values and his fitness for the presidency. A man whose spiritual advisor is Rev Wright, whose financial backer is Rezco, and whose first major employer was William Ayers might not be a good choice for president. But for these associations to loom large enough in our consciousness to impact our vote, the market has to settle down so we can hear the campaign over its din.

[Frantzie]

Barrins had an interview with Jeremy Grantham this weeeknd who manages over $100 billion. He is a very sharp money manager. He said fair value on the S&P 500 is 1025 versus 910 I think on the close Friday or close to that according to Barrons. So the S&P would have to mopve up 12% to get to fair value. Assuming 12% up on the DOW we would be at 9500.

I agree that 10,000 is possible and McCain will be golden then but it has to happen at least 5 days before the election in my mind.

The market is being weighed down by the almost frozen credit markets and the fear that Obama could win.

I posted something where the Bear markets of 1974, 1990 and 2002 ended right around October 10 of those years. These were the most significant bear markets during the period. I think 1987 ended mid October. Ditto 1998 when the Asian markets blew up but we snapped back.

I think if the credit markets stabilize a bit, we get a snap back soon. A lot of stock are technically and fundamentally very cheap right now.

[potlatch]

[Will they, though?]

No, the dems won’t listen. I’ve been on my newspaper’s forum. They consider the fact that McCain has a temper more worrisome than Obamas friends and associates!

One said, “he speaks well, will learn, etc....
One said, “ why even McCain called Obama ‘a nice guy’”.

Gee, thanks John, that’s a help!!

[DoughtyOne]

I’m not convinced it’s an ‘Obama may win’ thing. It very well could be, but I think it’s people just panicking. I know there as been some reason to, but as this levels out, I can’t imagine folks with money not wanting to be in the market.

We’ll see.

[DoughtyOne]

I agree with your comments, and appreciate the relating of what you have observed. The credit markets are key here. So is the public psyche. We’ll see.

[potlatch]

That's cute george! Here's a link about that;

Five Million Illegals Have Illegal Mortgages in U.S.A.!

LINK

[Frantzie]

Remember there is a lot of cash on the sidelines in pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds (short), retirement plans and EIA annuities that use options to be in the market. We could get a major snap back if the credit markets stabilize.

The good news is most of the weak big banks have been merged. My guess is the small banks will have shotgun weddings. There are also a lot of solid smaller banks who will absorb the sick ones.

The bank clean up is suprisingly pretty far along. Lots of problems but the fear of banks imploding may start to recede soon. There are lots of solid big banks out there who can absorb weak ones. PNC, US Bancorp, Wells, JP Morgan Chase, and a few others.

[alecqss]

It's many things. It started in January as a bit of jittery - part over housing bubble, part over elections (as Obama started to pull ahead). Back and forth, until the perfect storm of bad news decision of some large investors to move into cash.

Presently, it's mostly cashing out of the assets. Many are sitting on large amount of liquidity, but unwilling to invest since models for stock pricing does not include all sorts of socialist economic reforms that are coming. Basically nobody knows which company will worth what.

Take an ultimate Government controlled market - Russia. It's basically Putin who defined who is who. Today Yukos (Oil giant) is the top company in market capitalization; tomorrow it's broken in pieces and given Putin's cronies. The same goes for contracts - it does not matter who signed what. It's all about "interests of the people".

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for the additional comments.

[LeonardFMason]

GO AWAY YOU DICK!!!

[igoramus08]

Possibly too indirect. Dodd and Frank are the keys but it has to be Obama. It looks like an attack on Democrats. Has to be on Obama.

One key is Obama’s economic advisors are the people who wrecked Fannie & Freddie, caused this GLOBAL financial implosion and ran out of the smoldering Fannie & Freddie before the fire got going with close to $400 million in compensation.

I agree. The key is to tie both the Dems and Obama to the crisis.

* 31 years of a failed Democratic Party policy, pressuring banks to issue more and more risky loans, is what caused this economic crisis

* At the forefront in the early 90s was Obama. He sued Citibank, and he trained and funded ACORN, when they were intimidating banks to issue more of these risky loans

* It snowballed from there when Obama’s economic advisors, former CEOs of Fannie Mae, implemented this failed policy at Fannie Mae

* Even when warned about an impending crisis, Democrats still blocked reform in 2003 and 2005 that would have prevented it

* Obama at a 2007 ACORN meeting: "We are going to be calling all of you in to shape the agenda of my presidency." http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=8vJcVgJhNaU

* This failed Democratic Party policy of 31 years, has now cost taxpayers over 1 Trillion dollars, and Obama's 'agenda' will make taxpayers pay even more

[dusttoyou]

Morris is a slimeball for sure, and he probably doesn’t have our best interests at heart, but his observation on ebb and flow in elections is mirrowed by others like Rove.
The biggest blocker to the economy beginning to recover or rather the public seeing it recovering is the MSM, who will keep spinning WORST ECONOMY EVER as long as possible.

[GVnana]

The stock market abhors UNCERTAINTY. That's what is affecting the market more than anything.

I'm no economist, but I find it intriguing that the market is having troubles as Obama has been climbing in the polls, and there is no reason to believe this is not an additional factor.

[devolve]

.

Remember this about Dick Morris:

When Obama’s Kenya Luo tribe cousin Odinga (according to Odinga) ran for President in Kenya 2 people went to Kenya to advise and campaign for Odinga (before Odinga lost, called for riots, and Christians wer burned alive in their churches):

1 - Barack Hussy Obama Junior

2 - Dick Morris

[alecqss]

I agree, but this does not explain a couple of things. First, according to stats only 6% of loans are defaulting. Let's imagine that expectation is 10%. Still not enough to cause bankruptcies of the banks (what would immediately bankrupt, btw, is having all or majority of bank customers come and demand their money. There is no bank that has that much in cash).

Second, as far as I know, large companies (blue chips) are well capitalized, so there is not much economic reason to sell their stock. Majority of the rest are well capitalized, too.

Third, banks or majority of them are well positioned in cash, too. They just do not want to loan. The reason, I suspect, they are sure they could see that cash back come some vital changes.

There are some accounting rules that strained bank activities in the beginning, like requirements on collateral (with falling home prices banks formally have bad loans even so they are paid on time!).

However, present sell-off in my view is rooted in political uncertainty, let me put it this way.

[potlatch]

Amazing!

[patriot08]

CALLING OBAMA A RESPECTABLE FAMILY MAN THAT WE NEED NOT FEAR IS OUTRAGEOUS!

McCAIN TAKING THE ABUSE AND INSULTS FROM OBAMA AND REFUSING TO FIGHT BACK IS OUTRAGEOUS!

WE’RE NOT TURNING THE WHITE HOUSE KEYS OVER TO BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA- NOT IF WE ON FR, RUSH, HANNITY AND FOX HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT!

FReep McCAIN/ MSM OUT.

HOW LONG CAN THEY IGNORE A MILLION EMAILS??

.

McCain is losing this campaign because he refuses to fight Obama and his lies, and dirty tactics such as ACORN voter fraud. He’s just been rolling over (or bending over, I should say) and accepting the abuse heaped upon him- and expecially Sarah Palin.

The anemic attempts by the McCain camp to fight back within the last few days just ain’t gonna get it.
He should have been hitting Obama back hard months ago.
He needs to get out there every day and FIGHT BACK.
Email Republican headquarters/McCain.

FReep ‘EM OUT!

CAN THEY IGNORE A MILLION EMAILS?

REMIND McCAIN THAT HE HAS AN OBLIGATION AS OUR CANDIDATE TO FIGHT BACK!
To h*ll with bipartisian BS!
To h*ll with PC!
To h*ll with ‘conducting a respectful campaign’as McCain has said, and vowed to do.

RESPECTFUL CAMPAIGNING WENT STRAIGHT OUT THE WINDOW WITH OBAMA’S NASTY, BRUTAL COMMENTS SUCH AS;
‘lipstick on a pig’ and ‘You can wrap AN OLD FISH in a piece of paper called change. It’s still going to stink after eight years.’

Take off the gloves, McCain!

Hit the Marxist/Muslim hard with Ayers, Acorn, Violation of Logan Act, abortion, 2nd admendment, Campaigning for Odinga!!

Get off the d*mned economy issue. State that Obama/Democrats/ACORN caused this meltdown. State McCain offered a proposal to avert the meltdown and GET OFF IT.
Obama is counting on keeping this going to take the spotlight off his sordid past and dirty dealings!
NOTHING is more important than waking America up to this Marxist/Muslim!! DO IT. EXPOSE HIM!

FReep ‘EM!!!! SEND THEM THESE VIDEOS:

OBAMA CAUGHT STATING ACORN AND FRIENDS WILL SHAPE HIS PRESIDENTIAL AGENDA!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vJcVgJhNaU

Obama connection with ACORNhttp://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDZiMjkwMDczZWI5ODdjOWYxZTIzZGIyNzEyMjE0ODI=

Obama goes to Kenya on the tax payer’s dollar to campaign for the murderous Islam-backed Odinga!

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ&feature=related
SHORT VERSION:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1P_P8lBCsE

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FReep THE MSM!

SEND THEM DAMAGING INFO ON OBAMA. DEMAND THEY DO THEIR JOB AND INVESTIGATE.

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Obama connection with ACORNhttp://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDZiMjkwMDczZWI5ODdjOWYxZTIzZGIyNzEyMjE0ODI=
Obama goes to Kenya on the tax payer’s dollar to campaign for the murderous Islam-backed Odinga!
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ&feature=related
SHORT VERSION:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1P_P8lBCsE
Obama talks about Ayers giving him a job:
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=D-45A6I

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IMPORTANT
Be sure to add your name and town and email - or they won’t read them.
When emailing. they won’t read mass emails so put just one email add in the “to” line then click on BBC at the end of that line. a BCC line will open just above subject line. copy paste the rest of the addresses in there and each recipient will see ONLY their name

[WoofDog123]

“SEC’s Chris Cox STILL has not reinstituted the uptick rule on shorting”

The uptick rule no longer makes sense in a decimalized trading system, UNLESS they move to a minimum increment of something besides a penny on stocks over 5$, say a nickel. Stocks are upticking and downticking a few times a second in some cases with the ecns’ following peg order limits, etc, automatically.

one might ask why cox has essentially ignored naked ftd shorting as far as we can tell up until a few days before the short ban.

[txstoke]

I never trusted that ol Dick fella

[devolve]

.

Dick Morris has to plan ahead so he can write best-sellers and get FNC and other lucrative gigs while running his own polling and political advisory business for both parties and in England, Kenya, and who knows where next.....

[potlatch]

He’s a busy bee!