Posted on 10/10/2008 6:52:10 AM PDT by disraeligears
Caveat: None of the following is to be relied upon by anyone for anything. Anyother words, I have no idea what is going to happen in the financial markets, and if anyone tries to tell you differently, they are a bloody fool!!!
That said, before going to law school, I was a stockbroker (I know, I know, next it is selling used cars). I remember looking at my Quotron in 87 and seeing the Dow drop 25% in one day!
Never paid much mind to the charts (was always zeroed in on fundamentals).... BUT, recently, when I looked at the Dow over the past 12 years or so, support looked to be at around the 7600 level (July 2002).
Then I looked at the Dow since around 1935. Using my old ruler and drawing a line throught the market accretion since then (1935), it looks like the DOW would naturally be around 6000 if not for the past activity of 20 years or so.
Any ideas?
Dow just went into positive territory!
It was coming up yesterday too.
Financials are up - and Bush is speaking soon. My guess? Money will be pumped into that sector. A new “bailout” announcement that will work as well as the last one...
PE’s are well under the norm now. 6K would be belly up territory. We don’t have a belly-up scenario. We have a liquidity issue in the credit markets. Not a major business disaster.
And exponential contractions to absorb unpaid debt. If there is a natural market value to a stock, it will take some time to find it.
Witness the price of GM stock, obviously of less value than the materials and plant "owned" by the stockholders, perhaps even after paying off it's own obligation.
One thing is certain. At this point, Government can only make things more chaotic, delaying any settling out.
buy a shotgun, plenty of ammo, food, water and first aid supplies.
why? the democrats have a plan to help /sarc.
I read this caveat to mean that you are giving me financial advice that a licensed professional would offer, and that I may make sound decisions upon it, and that I may initiate a lawsuit if anything untoward happens.
Freepmail me your address, please.
(it's being driven by the dems to create 'the sky is falling'... which i have noted for over a year now)
The more they “help” the lower the DOW falls......
If the fit hits the shan then the most valuable commodity will be lead.
Before settling back to that level, it may go as low as 4500.
And what is the P/E on the S&P 500 today? What is the 100 year trading range on this number?
I'll join the fools betting pool: the floor will be 7200 and it will take 2 - 5 years to top 10,000 again.
Lazamataz - your attorneys can reach me at the address disraeligears gives you. By curious coincidence, my legal name is exactly the same as his (or hers).
Yup.. sell all positions(cash out)..
Buy them again at the bottom of the fall..
For all 401k's(and other instruments).. you're screwed..
I figure we may go to the bottom 10% of average P/E ratios over the last 100 years. Right now, rich Muslims around the world are creating financial chaos in hopes that their candidate, the rich Muslim Barack Hussein Obama II can steal the Presidency. So sell puts that expire in February and beyond, and trade the plummets and rallies.
BTW the P/E on the S&P 500 is right now about 12. Normal trading range is 6 to 15 historically, but ran 15 to 45 or something during Greenspan's "no risk" market bubble. Stocks have been expensive since Greenspan took the helm.
You can trade around in 401ks and hold funds in short term treasuries if you want a safe near cash equivalent for a while.
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