If the internals are cooked (and they are), of COURSE the maps are going to look bad.
Look at the ground game, look at reality.
Start with the Dem Primaries.
The superdelegates had to push Obambi across the finish line, against Hillary, *AFTER* he had an almost insurmountable lead in delegates.
He won mostly in "caucus" states where his loud "in your face" supporters could dominate things: in secret ballot states he got *trounced*.
Also he had trouble in places like Pennsylvania and California in the Primaries.
Then there's operation Chaos, when people registered Dem in large numbers, who are (Rush listeners!) NOT going for Bambi no matter what.
Then there are the PUMAs -- one PUMA site estimated five million PUMA votes (normally Dem) going for McCain nationally.
Remember, last couple of elections have been (maybe) 51%-49%. The internals of the polls are giving the Dems anything from a 9% to a 14% headstart -- and still Bambi is up by single digits?
This is not the makings of a landslide groundswell: that was deflated by Sarah Palin's "Styrofoam columns going back to some Hollywood lot" line during the convention.
Look at Obama's crowds, and Biden's. All the TV shots of Bambi are close shots of the stage; when you look at the people behind him, they are staged extras -- no enthusiasm, no joy: and often (watch for it) row after row of identical union thug T-shirts. Bussed in on orders. And the close-ups of the stage are to try to hide the small numbers.
Biden is drawing -- zilch. That is not the sign of a groundswell.
Compare that to the Pubbies. We are getting reports of site after site filled past capacity, with venues of 10,000 people attracting crowds of 20,000 or more. Without a massive TV push (God knows the press despises Sarah and would not lift a finger if she were drowning).
So those crowds ARE word of mouth.
Finally, look at the TV.
The Dem spinmeisters are all crying "landslide Obama" -- if he carries all of these in-play states and takes North Carolina, Florida, Ohio.
Democrats engage projection.
If Bambi were ahead, you would not hear -- think, don't absorb like a sheep!!! -- cries of racism, ridiculous accusations of "kill him" and "terrorist" happening at the GOP crowds. Sarah is a HAPPY person, so are her speeches. I have attended one, so have other FReepers.
Hint: Dems engage in projection, look at the videos of the "Obama youth" and other such.
Look at Carville darkly promising race riots if Obama loses.
Hint: did anyone ever speak of such a thing during Reagan's 1984 race. That *was* a landslide.
Finally, look at Obambi buying a half-hour of airtime on Oct. 29.
If he were up by 11 points, he wouldn't be doing that.
And if he were up by 11 points, the Dem talking heads would be crowing about HIS coattails, and how he would have 62 votes in the Senate and 2/3 of the house.
Not. A. Peep.
Compare what the Dems have been like when they have been cruising to a victory, to what they have been like this campaign.
You can feel it in the air.
...postscript.
The Feds and the states are ALL OVER ACORN. They won't be getting their "thug thizzle" this campaign: and the supposed wave of early voting fraud in Ohio for Obambi. Ain't happening, unless by absentee: which can be checked and challenged. And the shill, whore, and (in my mind) guilty of treason SecState of Ohio, just got bitch slapped by a federal court. If she tries it again, the same lawyers who won Florida for Bush in 2000 will have her for lunch in any aftermath.
Cheers! Cheers!
That's a great post, but come on--"The internals are cooked!" is the cry of the person who knows his side is losing and doesn't like it.
Please--we ALL know all about internals around here. Please respect my intelligence, and I'll respect yours.
If I were only looking at polls with lopsided samples, I sure wouldn't feel the way I do now.
I know, I know. But the economy is going to crash like a wave over this election. And when I heard McCain's comments about Obama, and the "Palin found guilty" thing...
It's not impossible, but it sure will be a surprise to me if McCain wins.
Excellent post.
thank you, sir.