Posted on 10/09/2008 9:07:58 PM PDT by SmithL
When the latest Field Poll showed Proposition 8 losing by 17 points, skeptical supporters of the measure that would ban same-sex marriage in California invoked a phrase coined in the 1980s: "the Bradley effect."
Named after the late Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who lost the 1982 California governor's race after polls showed him leading handily, the phrase refers to the tendency of respondents to lie to pollsters about issues of race.
The Bradley effect has been referenced in presidential polls this year as Sen. Barack Obama seeks to become the first black president. And it is also being used to describe possible disparities between polls taken on gay marriage measures and actual election results.
A new study of elections in 26 states – including California – found polls typically understate voter support for these measures.
"Because the media portrays gay marriages as being politically correct, people don't want to be seen by pollsters as being intolerant – so they hide their views," said Frank Schubert, campaign manager for the Yes on 8 campaign, which conducted the study.
As an example, Schubert cited Proposition 22, which California voters approved in 2000. The Field Poll showed the gay marriage ban – overturned in May by the state Supreme Court – was backed by 53 percent of voters right before the election. But when the votes were counted, 61 percent of voters supported the initiative.
The survey looked at measures banning same-sex marriage, dating back to the first such campaign in Hawaii in 1998. According to the study, surveys published by news media outlets before an election underestimated support for traditional marriage by an average of seven percentage points.
In only two of the 26 states did pre-election surveys accurately measure voter sentiment.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
When can we start calling it the Obama Effect?
Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
When the “messiah” loses.
No kidding. And largely by interviews over the phone even. I think the "Bradley effect" is getting a rather large head. Regardless, I'm hopeful that this amendment will pass easily.
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