Can McCain Come Back?

American Thinker ^ | October 09, 2008 | Richard Baehr

[vietvet67]

Over the last few days, the national tracking polls, for the first time in a month (or since the Lehman Brothers collapse triggered the current stage in the financial crisis), have shown a small movement away from Barack Obama and toward John McCain. A 6.6% Obama lead in the RCP national average Monday was down to 5.1% Wednesday.  The trend, however is mixed. Gallup gives Obama his biggest lead of the year at 11%, while Reuters, Hotline, and CBS, show the race in the 1-3% range. Even with margins of error, this range of results is pretty large. 

The state polls, on the other hand, have been quite favorable to Obama in the battleground states for weeks, and are consistent with a national polling lead of 6-7%.  Obama now is in a commanding position with regard to the Electoral College.  The state polls tend to lag the national tracking poll movement since they are not conducted as often, and if the national race is tightening, the state polls will also move a bit when they next appear.

Given his financial advantage, ground game advantage and current lead in the key states, Obama is clearly in a very good position today. So can McCain recover?  If so, what is his path to victory?  I will explore this in two ways: the state targets to get to 270 Electoral College votes, and the issues and themes that could serve to tighten the race.

National Polling Trends

The movement in the large sample size national tracking polls in the last month has been extraordinarily large given the late stage of the race. Gallup has swung from a 5 point McCain lead to an 11 point Obama lead in a month, a 16 point swing.  Rasmussen moved from a 3 point McCain lead to an 8 point Obama lead Tuesday (Wednesday the lead shrank to 6), an 11 point swing. Rasmussen's results have been more stable for most of the year than Gallup's, which have shown more volatility , but in either case, it is highly unusual to have such a sharp move toward one candidate after the two party conventions have been concluded. Gerald Ford picked up a lot of ground on Jimmy Carter late in the race in 1976, and Ronald Reagan pulled away from Jimmy Carter in the last two weeks in 1980.

To have a move back toward McCain after the Obama surge would not be surprising; races often tighten a bit near the end. But moving the national numbers 5 points or more will not be easy. 

And for McCain to have a chance in the Electoral College, he will likely have to be even or ahead in the national numbers.  That is because of certain built in advantages Obama has in the Electoral College map with many more red states in play than blue states, a situation that has existed all year except for the first part of September. 

Blue states

George Bush defeated John Kerry by 286-251 in 2006 (one Kerry elector chose not to vote for him), but the Democratic base of Kerry states is 252 Electoral College votes. At the moment, Obama is in the lead in all the Kerry states.  One survey gave McCain a 1 point  lead in Minnesota (10) last week, but other surveys have Obama ahead by significant margins in the state (Rasmussen has Obama up 7).  McCain has reduced his effort in Michigan (17), and is now behind by double digits in Pennsylvania (21).   Obama had a lead of between 5 and 10 in recent surveys in Wisconsin (10).   Obama also has opened up a good sized lead in New Hampshire (4) of 8-12% in the most recent  polls.

Maine

The outlier blue state where McCain is doing better than his national numbers and recent history would suggest is Maine (4), a state the Obama campaign seems to have taken for granted.  I spent a few weeks in Maine in September and there are McCain signs everywhere on the roads. The state has lots of hunters, and lower income small town voters. Sarah Palin may have real appeal there. The state awards one of its Electoral College votes for the each of its House districts to the winner of the district's vote. If McCain is only behind by 4-5% statewide, as recent surveys suggest, he would be in range of securing the one vote for Maine's 2^nd district (the more conservative northern district in the state).

There are somewhat plausible scenarios in which Maine's 2^nd district gives McCain a 270-268 Electoral College win (Obama wins Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, and no other red state, or he wins Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado and loses New Hampshire). McCain is in contention to win the state too and pick up two more Electoral College votes, if the national numbers move in his direction a few points. But even if that occurs, he is unlikely to win the more liberal 1^st district. Kerry won Maine by 8% in 2004. If the national numbers move 5% or more, Wisconsin will be more competitive, and so might New Hampshire and Minnesota. But Obama would still be favored in these states.

Red states

One red state, Iowa (7), is at this point, a near lock for Obama, who has had double digit leads in all but one survey in the state for the last few months. It is not at all clear why McCain is still contesting the state. McCain has a shot at holding all the other red states, though it won't be easy, and in no case will it happen unless the national numbers move decisively towards a breakeven race.

Many observers have conceded New Mexico (5) to Obama, but the recent numbers in the state show Obama up 5-8%, a good lead, but not yet a locked up state.  McCain may have fallen a bit less in the western states than in the Midwest or in some competitive southern states. New Mexico remains the 2^nd most likely state to shift from red to blue. If it does, then Obama needs only one more state to win.  Two very competitive states --  Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) -- both seem to be leaning to Obama at the moment, Colorado perhaps a bit more.  In both states, McCain had the lead before the financial crisis became the only major news story, suggesting he could recover in both states if the national polls move toward McCain.

The next tier of red states includes Nevada (5), Ohio (20), and Florida (27). Most surveys in each of these states now show Obama ahead, but the results are a bit mixed in each of them, with some outlier surveys showing McCain ahead.  The early voting in Ohio, with ACORN and the Obama camp bringing buses loaded with homeless people, felons and others without picture IDs or much else to prove who they are, to register and vote, has put McCain in a tough spot in the state. Perhaps in no other state in the country has the Secretary of State (a Democrat), been more egregiously partisan in her rulings and voting decisions.

If the national numbers move 5%, I think McCain will be in decent shape in all three states. Obama has a better ground game in all of them, and is advertising more heavily than McCain and the RNC, but he has not locked up any of these states, all of which have trended Republican in recent national elections.

The final tier of red states in play includes North Carolina (15), Missouri (11), and Indiana (11). All of these states are for now too close to call. If Obama wins any of them, he is likely to have won other red states already discussed, and be on his way to a comfortable Electoral College victory. To have a shot at winning, McCain must win these states comfortably, and be able to devote more of his more limited resources to Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia and Colorado.  With no easy blue state targets, McCain must in essence pull to an inside straight, and win all the close competitive red states that are in play. If Obama wins New Mexico and Iowa, he only needs to pick off one more, and chances of his doing so remain very good, even if the national numbers improve for McCain, and are about even 26 days from now.

Themes for McCain to pursue

The voting public is taking a second look at Obama, now that the big media have proclaimed all but a lock to become the 44^th president. McCain and Palin must actively help shape the narrative as voters focus on learning more about him, as the next 26 days become a referendum on Barack Obama.

Obama can overplay his hand. He has chosen to remain his unflappable self, cool and confident, playing it safe. There may be voters who want to know how his plans for running the country have changed, given the current financial crisis and its powerful impact on the federal budget, and economic growth going forward.  Obama has been sticking to campaign sound bites that have been played out over 21 months, and continues to focus on George Bush or McCain. This approach does not address voters' concerns.

McCain could tell voters that if Obama is elected, he will not be a successful President by continuing to blame George Bush for al that is wrong with the world. He'll have to do a better job himself, but Obama has never run anything. His ability to lead a weakened nation in January is something voters should consider. Will raising taxes on higher earners,  spending hundreds of billions on new federal programs, and making trade with our partners more difficult, serve to put the nation on a better glide path back to economic growth, energy self-sufficiency, and a reversal of our debtor station status? 

Obviously, John McCain can help his own cause by hitting Obama for sticking with his by-now stale approach to governing, which seems to ignore to a large extent how things have changed. In the debates, neither Obama nor Biden have offered to hold back on any of the vast spending programs to which they are already committed, except maybe to delay initiating Professor Jeffrey Sachs' near trillion dollar foreign aid giveaway, which Obama has enthusiastically endorsed. 

McCain, conversely, needs to show that he is energetically engaged, and working to address the specific issues that are now front-and-center for the country.  McCain also  needs to continue to hit on the role Congressional Democrats and Presidents Carter and Clinton played  in enabling and encouraging FNMA and Freddie Mac to make subprime loans and create the mess which led to the collapse of the securitized mortgage market.

Barack Obama blames the financial crisis on Republican deregulation, and surprise, surprise, George Bush. But Bush did not create the regulatory climate for banks overseas that have been collapsing the last few weeks.  Americans can understand why subprime loans became problematic, but cannot be expected to understand a $77 trillion market in credit swaps.   Keeping the story simple, but naming the villains (e.g. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Obama himself), can put the Democrats on defense.

McCain also needs to make Americans think one more time about who Barack Obama is, and where he came from. In this regard, the Bill Ayers history is important, as is Obama's role in the New  Party, Reverend Wright, Tony Rezko, and Father Michael Phleger. There is a pattern of association and alliances with very radical figures for many years.

It is understandable why the Obama campaign has been pushing back so hard to keep the Ayers story from getting out. The mainstream media has done their predictable whitewash of the Ayers Obama relationship, saying it was casual and not close, and not worrisome in any case, since Ayers is now a respectable education reformer. All of this is fundamentally untrue, of course.

McCain also needs to bring national security concerns back into the discussion, since most voters still give the GOP an edge on these issues, and Obama's positions on meeting without preconditions with Ahmadinejad ,and other rogue state leaders, his refusal to back the surge and instead demand an early withdrawal from Iraq a year back (whatever the consequences on the ground) and his desire to cut back missile defense systems ,are all issues that might weaken his support among independents who at the moment lean to his candidacy.

As I said at the outset, it is uphill for John McCain, but he has had bigger and tougher fights before.  Both McCain and Palin have been underdogs and triumphed. If McCain can rattle Obama with his reminders about Bill Ayers, Americans may  see a nastier Barack Obama than they have seen so far. Then things may get interesting again.

Richard Baehr is chief political correspondent of American Thinker.

[CommieCutter]

CHARGE!

[ExTexasRedhead]

Listened to Rush’s show today and McCain and Palan are drawing huge crowds and they’re on fire. Pray and keep working. The media is trying to demoralize us with their Liberal lies!!! Go Sarah Go

MSM = Socialist traitors, IMO.

[RC2]

Conservatives are getting fired up. I hope they keep it going. They’re pissed and Obama and they won’t sit down and shut up.

[Always Right]

This election will not be a blowout. It will be a 2-3 point race with decided by a couple key states. Polls overstate Obama’s current advantage, but make no mistake he is in the lead.

[freekitty]

I agree.

[Ingtar]

It is my contention that this analysis is flawed in that Obama is not up in many of the places the polls have been twisted to put him on top.

[word_warrior_bob]

If you really look at the polls he’s not really behind, and any comeback will be small, if Obama leads at all it’s tenuous and miniscule.

Obama will come close to firming up his base as well as Gore and Kerry, who both lost.

Obama will NOT, NOT, NOT, come close to the traditional advantage in the female vote that is part of the dem path to victory.

Both of these stories would be headline news and lead the nightly “news” broadcasts if Obama were the Republican candidate.

Their only HOPE (Obama & MSM) is to create the alternate reality where Obama is way ahead and our “inevitable” President, hoping to CHANGE the unfortunate reality that he is going to lose.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>The state polls, on the other hand, have been quite favorable to Obama in the battleground states for weeks, and are consistent with a national polling lead of 6-7%.

The national trends are all against McCain. One debate left. McCain has to make the most of it. A repeat of the last debate performance and McCain is done. Palin is holding up her end. Its all up to McCain now.

[word_warrior_bob]

Correction, Obama will NOT come close to the support of the base enjoyed by Gore and Kerry.

[Crimson Elephant]

Even Gallup themselves must think something is screwy with an ELEVEN point Obama lead in a poll. Even if you are trying to game the results, that is too big a margin to pass the smell test.

[WakeUpAndVote]

YOUBETCHA!

[Paperdoll]

>Can McCain make a comeback?<

Not unless he takes these suggestions:

If he is truly for the U.S.A.:

Please come down hard on ACORN, Obama’s long association with it, and ACORN’S association with the collapse of the housing market due to pressure to make subprime loans.

Please change your plan for amnesty for illegal aliens. The American people are extremely against McCain/Kennedy.

Please announce your opposition to nationaizing the banking system.

Plase continue to expound on your opposition to earmark spending and emphasize opposition to big government. (Shame on you for voting for the bailout - NOT a maverick move.)

Please promise to keep health insurance in the private sector.

If McCain will do these things, and follow through on them, he just might make a comeback.

[IndianPrincessOK]

“Even Gallup themselves must think something is screwy with an ELEVEN point Obama lead in a poll. Even if you are trying to game the results, that is too big a margin to pass the smell test.”

Gallup might be 11 (registered, if LV-should be around 7 or 8) but the rest is more accurate...I still believe through it all....McCain will come back....we are finally getting to the core of Obama...and it is being exposed and ugly. Mainly the voter fraud is being revealed now and NOT later!

Gallup Tracking: Obama 52, McCain 41.

Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 50, McCain 45.

Hotline Tracking: Obama 47, McCain 41.

Reuters Tracking: Obama 48, McCain 44.

Battleground Tracking: Obama 48, McCain 45.

AVERAGE: Obama 49, McCain 43. (Obama +6%).

[ScottinVA]

Well, the stock market has GOT to stop going into a daily lemmings-off-the-cliff mode (Dow is down 400 as of 3:31 EDT). Voters can’t separate the facts out enough to know McCain isn’t responsible for it.

[freekitty]

Rush was rocking today just as McCain/Palin were at a rally.

[southfloridaguy]

If he and palin keep the fire stoked as they did today in WI the polls will move!

WI Audio here:
http://www.620wtmj.com/podcasts/newstogo/30696559.html?video=pop&t=a

[reagan_fanatic]

It's unbelievable that a complete rube like Barack Obama, with almost no governmental experience whatsoever, is as close as he is to becoming President of the United States.

American voters must truly be naive and stupid.

[IndianPrincessOK]

“If he and palin keep the fire stoked as they did today in WI the polls will move!”

WI Audio here:
http://www.620wtmj.com/podcasts/newstogo/30696559.html?video=pop&t=a

Absolutely positively correct!!! I watched the whole rally on Fox (well, until they broke away) and it was electrifying!! THE crowd was stoked. They want Obama revealed and they/we want McCain to fight. AFTER today with ACORN in the headlines, Ayers.....we will see polls start to move back...it already has from last week moved more our way.

[1-Eagle]

Answer: Yes, but he needs to change a few things very quickly while there is still time.

Important things he needs to do to ensure victory Nov. 4th:

1. Make a quick campaign run through the South, and openly court the black vote while he is there. Not as a centerpiece, but he needs to confront the racial charges being leveled at his campaign by stating very clearly that he will be the President of all people regardless of race, religion, or background, and this will be reflected in the people he chooses to appoint to his administration (without naming names.)

2. The Democrats are sitting ducks on Fannie Mae. McCain/Palin just need to close the verdict. McCain wants to be Mr. Non-partisan, but Fanniegate was a national embarrassment and people want heads to roll. Conveniently, it just happens to be all the democrats fault. This is more damaging to Obama and the Democrats in Congress than the Ayers story ever will be. The iron is hot on Fannie Mae, the time to strike is now or never.

3. Ayers and Odinga, are important side issues that speak to the character of Obama. These hot button issues are best picked up by partisan RNC advertisements. Let McCain/Palin work on FannieGate.

4. Low taxes = more revenue for Government. Quote John F. Kennedy on this subject often, and explain how lower taxes created the Reagan boom. "Do you want another Reagan economy? Vote for us!" This positions the campaign as a type of new Reagan administration instead of an old Bush administration.

5. President Bush has been mis-characterized and demonized for years, and RNC has sat on its hands and let it happen. RNC is at fault for that. RNC could possibly still help to a small degree by putting out pro-Bush ads "We thank President Bush for his leadership" with slideshow of President Bush at work in our Country. Its kind of late for that now, for which RNC leadership should be ashamed of themselves, but it may help.

And RNC should vow not to let this happen to McCain by supporting him and Palin with positive advertisments throughout the term of office to counter the negative attacks that are sure to come.

6. Cindy McCain is a secret weapon. A truly remarkable woman as we saw in the films shown at RNC convention. They need more positive advertisements... and heres a great one already made except the length. Edited down to campaign size TV ads, a quick "slideshow" of Cindy in action in a 30 second spot will help America see our new First Lady in action around the globe. (She looks really great in a flight suit, be sure to include those pics!) Obama cannot counter with anything to showoff Michelle that will match this... so this will be a good "tie-breaker" for undecideds.