Posted on 10/08/2008 7:50:04 AM PDT by thackney
Highlights
Average household expenditures for all space-heating fuels are projected to be $1,137 this winter (October 1 to March 31), a 15-percent increase over the estimated $986 spent last winter. The largest increases will be in households using heating oil and natural gas. The projected increases primarily reflect higher prices, although colder weather than last winter will also contribute to higher fuel use in many areas.
Strong global demand and low surplus production capacity contributed to the run-up to record crude oil prices in July. The current slowdown in economic growth is contributing to the recent decline in oil demand and the sharp decline in prices since July. Nonetheless, oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight because of sluggish production growth. Absent a major worldwide economic downturn that significantly impacts global demand, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are projected to average about $112 per barrel in both 2008 and 2009.
According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent projection of heating degree-days, the Lower-48 States are forecast to be 2.4 percent colder this winter compared with last winter, but 1.7 percent warmer than the 30-year average (1971 to 2000). However, regional heating degree-day projections vary widely; for example, the West North Central region is projected to be almost 5 percent warmer than last winter.
During September, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike shut in a total of 32 million barrels of crude oil and 165 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico. Recovery is ongoing and expected to continue at least through October.
Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region
The average household winter heating fuel expenditures discussed in this Outlook provide a broad guide to changes from last winter, but fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, market size, the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings.
Natural Gas. Households heating primarily with natural gas are expected to spend an average of $155 (18 percent) more this winter. Nationwide, about 52 percent of all households depend on natural gas as their primary heating fuel. The increase in natural gas expenditures reflects the combined effects of a 17-percent increase in price and 1-percent increase in consumption. In the Midwest, where 72 percent of all households rely on natural gas, a projected 17-percent increase in average household expenditures results from a 19-percent increase in prices and a decline in consumption of 2 percent due to the forecast of slightly warmer weather than last winter.
Heating Oil. Households heating primarily with heating oil can expect to pay an average of $449 (23 percent) more this winter. Only 7 percent of U.S. households depend on heating oil for winter fuel and most of these households are in the Northeast, where 31 percent of households use heating oil as their primary space heating fuel. In that region, the average household is projected to pay 24 percent more than last winter as a result of an 18-percent increase in prices and a 5-percent increase in consumption. Residential heating oil prices in the Northeast are projected to average about $3.90 per gallon during the winter season compared with $3.31 per gallon last winter. The projected increase is consistent with higher crude oil prices and projections of lower distillate inventories than last year going into the heating season.
Propane. Households heating primarily with propane can expect to pay an average of $188 (11 percent) more this winter. Propane-heated households, which represent about 6 percent of total U.S. households, are projected to see an average increase of 11 percent in propane expenditures this winter, but that increase varies widely by region. Western households are expected to see an average increase in expenditures of 5 percent, while Southern homes are expected to spend 16 percent more this winter.
Electricity. Households heating primarily with electricity can expect to pay an average of $89 (10 percent) more. Thirty-five percent of all U.S. households rely on electricity as their primary heating fuel, ranging from 12 percent in the Northeast to 59 percent in the South. On average, electricity expenditures during the winter are projected to rise by 10 percent because of increased consumption and prices. Households in the South are projected to pay 13 percent more this winter on electricity bills.
More at source:
I’m glad I got natural gas......................heating, that is.......
Since I spent a little more than $1,700 last year I sure I will be keeping my above average reputation this year. : (
What is your source of heating fuel?
NG Boiler
Ouch. At least you don't use fuel oil.
I don't know, sometimes I believe that the cost is calculated by BTU's, using electric as a baseline.
That should be true, Residential Natural gas is often priced by the Therm. (1 therm=100,000 Btu, which is the heat content of about 100 cubic feet of gas)
using electric as a baseline
That part sounds doubtful. I do not understand how (or why) they would do that.
If you are interested, some more information may be found at:
Residential Natural Gas Prices
What Consumer Should Know
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/oil_gas/rngp/index.html
Release Date: November 2007
Next Release Date: November 2008
Judging from your home page, you probably already know this stuff, but maybe there is some new info there for you.
Electricity (MWH) 3,412 BTUs/kilowatt hour
Fuel Oil (gal. 000’s) 138,700 BTUs/gallon
Nat. Gas (cu. feet 000’s) 1,031 BTUs/cubic foot
LPG/Propane (gal. 000’s) 95,500 BTU/gallon
Coal (short ton) 24,580,000 BTUs/short ton
Purchased Steam (BTUs) 1,000 BTUs/pound
Domestic crude production has been steadily declining since the 1970s and the 2008 projection for crude oil production falls under 5 million bbl/d for the first time since 1946.
Keep in mind you pay for quite a few inefficiency in the process of generating and bringing the electricity to your house.
2007 data available by clicking picture.
And Pickens wants to increase NG demand tenfold. Great idea there.
It would be awesome to go back to 1999 when I bought my furnace and choose something other than NG. An electric would have paid for itself several times by now.
Here we go, just fill in the blanks.
HOME FUEL COST COMPARISON
http://cecalaveras.ucdavis.edu/files/31924.pdf
You got me going, now I can’t stop till I have the numbers.
Cost in my area per 100,000 btu
Electric - $4.98
Oil - $2.69
NG - $2.10
What area are you in? Because where I’m at, electricity is super cheap compared to the rest of the country.
Thanks
good info
I plan on supplementing my propane with a lot of spot heating using electric this winter, because here in Indiana, electric is cheaper.
Upstate N.Y., electric alone is cheap until you consider the transport, service, and tax tacked on. My fees are usually more than the cost of electric I use.
You would have to have a very inefficient NG Water heating unit to make up more than twice the price difference.
I had a similar unit in Alaska. Much better efficiency than a forced air, IIRC.
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