I don’t think very highly of Richard Clarke, but here’s his take:
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Richard Clarke: Al Qaeda Might Try To Swing Election To McCain
By Greg Sargent - October 6, 2008, 4:42PM
Counter-terrorism expert Richard Clarke dares to broach publicly the scenario that most will only discuss in private: The possibility of a terror attack, or the release of another Bin Laden tape, right on the eve of the election:
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U.S. intelligence and security officials are worried. They admit that there is nothing concrete that suggests another attack, but they fear that al Qaeda may try something, maybe even in the United States...
At the very least, expect another Halloween video from the scary man in the cave...
Even more likely is the possibility that al Qaeda would hope the attack would benefit John McCain.
Opinion polls, which, as noted above, al Qaeda reads closely, suggest that an attack would help McCain. Polls in Europe and the Middle East also suggest an overwhelming popular support there for Barack Obama. Al Qaeda would not like it if there were a popular American president again.
(end of Clarke’s take)
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When dealing with this topic, it’s always worth recalling that CIA analysts reportedly did conclude that Bin Laden had released the tape in order to help Bush stay in power, partly because his presidency made such a handy recruiting tool.
John Kerry has said that the Bin Laden tape released days before Election Day 2004 helped tip the election to Bush. But Kerry and his aides were caught off guard, and even alarmed, by the surfacing of the tape. One imagines — indeed, one has no doubt — that the Obama team is already thinking this through right now.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/richard_clarke_al_qaeda_might.php
Ah! I never quite looked at it that way:
“Even more likely is the possibility that al Qaeda would hope the attack would benefit John McCain. Opinion polls, which, as noted above, al Qaeda reads closely, suggest that an attack would help McCain. Polls in Europe and the Middle East also suggest an overwhelming popular support there for Barack Obama. Al Qaeda would not like it if there were a popular American president again.”
So they think that the Obamessiah would steal bin Laden’s thunder?