all salute osamabama
Posted on 10/06/2008 6:07:02 PM PDT by lasereye
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - It's a question that comes up whenever anyone of African-American descent is a candidate for office, and this year is no exception: is the so-called "Bradley effect" going to play a role in the 2008 presidential race?
Many pollsters doubt it, and think there's an even more fundamental question to be asked - whether there ever was such a phenomenon. If there was, they seriously doubt that with all the time that has passed since the late Tom Bradley lost a close gubernatorial race in California 26 years ago - despite being ahead in late polls - that it will play a significant role when the time comes to pull the lever for Barack Obama or John
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
I don’t know about Bradley, BUT he might run into the Osama Effect.
How about the “terrorist connection” effect?
Its already been proven he has a bradley effect, he’s overpolled in practically poll during the primary by about 4%.
That was just between democrats.It will be worse in the GE.
So it does exist.
The Bradley Effect is merely an imaginary phenomenom to cover up the fact that pollsters try to sway voters with incorrect polls.
How about the Odinga effect?
No need to wonder; just look at the results of the primaries, where Barry underperformed his polling in several instances.
If someone I suspect is a Dem calls me for an opinion or a statement of my intent, I'm not going to tell him McCain's my choice. I'll say I don't know. I don't trust these guys. They're thugs and they've got my name and phone #.
It's my belief that it's more likely that a Dem will key a car with a Pub sticker than the reverse. The Dems think that sheer volume of the shrill invective and hysteria can make us fall into line.
Yes.
Bradley (black) lost to his Republican challenger (white) in 1982, and Wilder (black) lost in 1989 to his Republican challenger (white).
Both Bradley and Wilder were ahead in several polls (and for quite some time ) before those elections. Both lost in the general election.
The Bradley Effect cannot be measured in Dem primaries. It takes a general election to show it. Thats when Independents and Repubs come into play.
I hope so.
Everytime Obama-nation is under attack, the MSM brings up the Bradley effect to GOTV. It’s nothing more than a GOTV tactis for liberals. Last time they did it, Mccain was up 4 in Gallup DT.
Polls, the ones made much of by MSM, are designed to pull public opinion.
Since they do not represent reality, there is no reason to expect voting outcome to be close to the polls.
So, in my opinion, The Bradley Effect is overrated. It was probably invented by the LA Times to cover their deceitfulness in the campaign.
Plus, I lie to pollsters and urge everyone else to follow, since it further erodes the power of MSM.
...The Dem primaries did not have many primaries in which Repubs and Ind’s could vote.
Wilder won.
The “Bradley” effect might be worth 4 points.
But I would guess the “Anti-American”, “terrorist buddy” might be more than 4 points. Call me crazy.
The biggest problem Obama has is oversampling of urban areas which is where I think the so called Bradley effect comes from. Polls to be accurate need to achieve a sample that is representative.
If that were not so we'd have a black Republican governor in Ohio and a black Republican senator in Maryland.
At the same time many people are so irate at pollsters they refuse to answer. This is taken as a non-response and is deleted from the sample base. I think the white Democrats who will not vote for Obama because of race are included in the non-responses.
all salute osamabama
I don't think that was true across the board.
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