Posted on 10/06/2008 6:07:02 PM PDT by lasereye
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - It's a question that comes up whenever anyone of African-American descent is a candidate for office, and this year is no exception: is the so-called "Bradley effect" going to play a role in the 2008 presidential race?
Many pollsters doubt it, and think there's an even more fundamental question to be asked - whether there ever was such a phenomenon. If there was, they seriously doubt that with all the time that has passed since the late Tom Bradley lost a close gubernatorial race in California 26 years ago - despite being ahead in late polls - that it will play a significant role when the time comes to pull the lever for Barack Obama or John
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
How about the “Idiot, empty suit effect”. ;-)
RE: “Bradley (black) lost to his Republican challenger (white) in 1982, and Wilder (black) lost in 1989 to his Republican challenger (white).
Both Bradley and Wilder were ahead in several polls (and for quite some time ) before those elections. Both lost in the general election.
The Bradley Effect cannot be measured in Dem primaries. It takes a general election to show it. Thats when Independents and Repubs come into play.”
YES, I agree with you. Bradley/Wilder effect will DEFINITELY be in play in this general election.
What I have noticed in social gatherings and some other situations is that when people discuss politics and they wish to express negative feelings about Obama’s positions and past associations-they whisper.
Or mouth his name.
Sometimes glancing around before saying it.
Never noticed that before .
That is open to debate.
Wilder won by half a percent. Did fraud factor in?
And... Wilder was ahead by 9 PERCENT average in the polls leading up to the election.
Time for you to belive in the Bradley Effect.
Bradley was way ahead, too.
Wilder did go on to win, but by a much smaller margin than the polls were showing. In the polls, he was way ahead but ended up winning by only 1%.
Hopefully that’s a strong effect.
He isn’t black, he’s arab.
...just sayin...
Wilder won by 1/2 a percent, not 1%.
Did fraud factor in?
BTW, Wilder was ahead by 9 percent average in the polls before election day.
Not looking good for Obama....
The Bradley effect has absolutely nothing to do with the “racism” of voters, it has to do with incorrect polling techniques by the pollsters in some races.
If the gallups and such give a little more analysis to their work, if pollster polished up their interviewing techniques, they would be more likely to get accurate polls.
Pushing it off on “racism” is just a phony baloney guilt trip they are trying to foist on the public.
I’ve got a feeling that there is another effect out there that his going to bite Obama on the ass. It’s the “I’m a Republican and I’ve got a son in Iraq” effect. Every ‘RAT within sniffing distance of a reporter says that. They are not only ashamed to be an unAmerican DemocRAT, they are also confusing the issue when they spew that garbage to to reporters and pollsters.
Wilder was also over 20 years ago, like Bradley. The idea in this article is that pollsters believe if it existed it’s a lot less now.
The Bradley Effect in a nutshell:
Some that are polled don’t want people to think they are racists, so they tell the pollsters that they will vote for the black guy, when they have no intention of doing so.
In our household he has already run into the Achmed Effect.
On Fox Juan Williams made mention of those inside the Obama campaign who believe there will be a 5% Bradley effect. They say it is critical that the polls have Obama up 6-8% points on election day if he is going to win. HMMMMMMMMM? What is Obama up in most Polls?
Pollsters have no idea if it is a lot less now.
They have no idea. How could they?
But, going by past experience - the only thing we have to go by - one should lean in favor of there still being a Bradley Effect.
With the MSM saying that those who don’t vote for Obama are racists... this should practically guarantee a Bradley Effect now. This race-baiting by the MSM, I imagine, is angering people.
Bradley Effect in a nutshell: Some polled don’t want people to think they are racist, so they tell pollsters that they will vote for the black guy, when they have no intention of doing so.
I am not an identity politics voter, so I have no problem telling the truth. I am not voting for Obambi and it has nothing to do with race, but everything to do with slowing down leftist socialism.
Why not?
Sums it up pretty nicely.
Yes, there’s likely to be a LARGE Bradley effect. Here’s why:
Many media people have openly described people opposing Obama as “stupid” or “racist”. Nobody wants to be thought of as racist, everyone wants to be though of as smart. Many will answer “Obama” even though they have no intention of voting for him.
The other factor is Sarah Palin. Most women don’t want to be though of as “Sexist”. But many are quietly rooting for Sarah Palin even while supporting Obama.
This extreme Bradley effect could cause havoc on election day. These people will also lie to exit pollsters - all you folks at the news networks better play your cards very carefully - this could be an election night fiasco.!
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