Battleground Poll: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/2/2008 | Battleground Poll

[tatown]

Obama 49%, McCain 44% (+3 points from yesterday).

[cosmic_me]

The GOP has a huge problem. It appears “some” quickly embrace exactly what the media wants them to embrace. If the media says defeat is at hand the base seems to hold it's head down and say.. Oh me oh my it's over. Did we honestly think the media was ever going to allow reports that McCain could outright win this thing? Absolutely not. They were shooting stones out their behinds the day Palin stepped into this and have been busy little bee's creating this defeat. In fact we knew the babble would get very loud about a McCain sure fire defeat. Do I trust these polls? Hell no! They don't make logical sense. They leave out so many variables. What bothers me the most is the voter that is going to stay home assuming defeat because they've bought this nonsense. I believe the votes are there but there has to be a continued motivation to get them to the polls and stop this Oh me Oh my routine and just laugh at what is being spread around like a real bad fart by a machine that is bought and paid for by the DNC.

Here's how predictable the “debate” will go this evening. Palin will be hammered with hardcore questioning. After the debate they will call it a draw. No matter how good she does. Then after the DNC has massed emailed their base to hit all internet polls to make it appear as if Biden has squarely won the debate the following day the MSM makes it move and it will not longer be called a draw but a clear win for Biden using the skewed polls to hammer that home. Does the GOP base wither and slide away by this manipulation?

[Cedric]

Send in the 527s!

[Allegra]

I came on here to see how many doom-and-gloomers were around doing the "McCain is toast," "This election is lost," and "Get ready for President Obama" thing.

And yep, they're here. They sound somewhat reminiscent of Harry Reid with his "This war is lost." And, ooops...it wasn't. Remember?

Buck up, folks and stop giving up just because the road gets bumpy.

It ain't over until November 4.

[MattinNJ]

My number 1 problem with the GOP is that the held both houses of congress and the White House for 6 years and did nothing about voter I.D for federal elections. I am being "disenfranchised" as we speak. Hundreds of buses crammed with people from surrounding states are flocking to Ohio with people who say they live at the Y or a homeless shelter and are voting right now. mcCain will have to win Ohio by 7-8 percent to break even. It's over.

I know first hand how NJ union workers would take election day off, with full pay of course, vote in Joisey, and then get bussed to NY or Pa. Pa. and NY unions would reciprocate. the result is that those thhree states are no longer competitive.

The only way McCain wins Pa. is if Hillary commands Fast Eddie Rendell to suppress the vote fraud.

[rashley]

Amen to that. I’m getting very tired of McCain and his Democrat pals saying that now is not the time to assign blame for the economic mess. Well, I want blame assigned and I suspect that the American people do as well! What Raines and Johnson did was far worse than what Lay, Ebbers, and Kozlowski did. They, along with Dodd, Schumer, Frank, and the Congressional Black Caucus need to be held to account.

[ex-snook]

"Barack Obama has given our side tons of ammunition"

Right and all of it has been used over and over to no avail. All it has done is, that in spite of it, voters think Obama will be better for them than McCain. McCain has to figure out why before it is too late for him. The vision thing of Palin and Lieberman seem more like loads that lifts.

[txroadkill]

I'm am taking a statistics class right now (let me be honest, I am fighting for my life trying to pass a statistics class right now), but here is something that is in the fine line in all these polls, they are skewed towards Obama. The polls that are out are heavy Democrat samples plus added points trying to predict the outcome of the effect of all the newly registered democrats. However, the polls do not take into account that a lot of those new Democrats are PUMAS who might deliver a good portion of the 18 million votes that went to Hillary to McCain or many of the left of center Democrats that would have never voted for Obama to begin with. They also don't take into account (because they don't know the statistical data) how many of those new registered Democrats wont vote.

Be prepared for massive voter fraud accusations from the left when McCain wins. Personally, I expect riots. 

[Carley]

My prayer.

Please God, make the rightwing folks shut up and stop bashing McCain and Sarah Palin.

The world needs someone who understands national security is also worldwide security.

[ScottinVA]

If so, I’ll be there!!

[Carley]

Check out newsbusters today on the new methodology in polling.

Stop whining about the polls, stop handwringing, and first and foremost stop bashing McCain.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Precisely, Chet.

Polls can swing and tighten very quickly. And we are actually concerned about a very narrow segment of the population. Maybe 10%. A change in perception can cause a major shift in days. Remember 2000. By late October, Bush had turned the corner and was cruising to a big victory until the DUI charge broke over the weekend. Then things switched and Gore won the popular vote.

As things tighten, the battleground states will swing back in McCain's favor again. We just have to get past these bad headlines and get Congress out of Washington.

[lonestar67]

This is highly significant. Celia Lake is a major democratic strategist.

Rock the VOte did not increase 18-24 year old turnout. There is no empirical justification for increasing their percentages in voter polling. To suppose that their participation in election is equal to their representation in the population is ABSURD. It has never been anywhere close to that.

The pollsters are messing with conservatives trying to do exactly what is happening on this thread— create the spiral of cynicism that literally causes conservatives to stay home.

Stop being so silly about this stuff.

McCain is winning.

[Thane_Banquo]

Right and all of it has been used over and over to no avail.

Actually, none of it has been used by the campaign in talking directly to voters. The only place it has appeared is in the conservative alternative media, which is singing to the choir.

[ari-freedom]

Reagan would never write the defeatist flop that you just posted.

the problem is that McCain is defeatist and we’re just reflecting that. He has to stand up and fight if expects us to.
I’m going to vote for mccain no matter what but a lot of people are already turned off and there’s not much I can do about that-only mccain can.

[dubie]

Listen, the media is really in the tank for obama and this race is still close(according to their poles). The truth is, there are way too many white people in this country who will NOT vote for a liberal black guy who is friends with terrorists, kills babies, wants to raise their taxes, hates our culture and hates America and says that our military air raid villages and innocent civilians... Sorry, there is no way Obama wins this election. As much as the MSM wants him to win, it is not possible. I am convinced of that. Elections turn on a dime and 30 days or so is an eternity in politics. No worries here...

[Canedawg]

Glad i could be of assistance.

The MSM is in the tank, and part of their strategy is to demoralize the opposition.

“This is no time to go wobbly.” -Margaret Thatcher

[ari-freedom]

I don’t care what the pollsters say. it’s what mccain is doing that depresses us (and not just conservatives: who wants higher taxes to pay for over $900 billion??)

[igoramus08]

Folks, this race is still fluid. The best thing is to get this bailout thing off the front burner ASAP. Then McCain can get traction on Obama. To suggest that McCain doesnt want to win, though, is absolutely crazy. He has been running for POTUS for two years now. A guy just doesn't give up. He is just in an impossible situation.

Yes. He made the commitment to be bipartisan last week, so he is stuck with being bipartisan until the bailout is passed. They have to be on message and clear as soon as the bailout is passed because there is not much time left. No stupid ads on Sex Education when your spokespeople wont back it up with facts, no saying Obama will increase taxes without saying Obama's policies will cost trillions and the only way he can afford it is to raise taxes on the middle class.

1. Economy. Increasing taxes on small business and capital gains tax increases means jobs loss and things cost more. Also the Democratic CRA policy gone mad is what caused this economic crisis. Obama and ACORN and their "community organizing" are major players that kick-started this crisis. What caused the crisis is still there, and electing Obama ensures this same crisis will happen again in the future.

2. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama was against the surge. If he got his way, immediate withdrawal 2 years ago, Al-Qaeda and Iran would be emboldened and more of a threat than they are today. McCain will apply the same successful strategy he championed in the Surge to win Afghanistan too. Obama, who knows?

So on the two most important issues, the Economy and Iraq/Afghanistan, Republicans should be ahead if they get their talking points right.

[ncalburt]

In one day , the Battleground Obama drone badgered the Conservative side to SHIFT THE POLL TO OBAMA BY FOUR POINTS !
This tracking poll shows what a joke these tracking poll crap is !
Its useless information based on one pollster Pro Obama politics !

[allmendream]

I agree.

Live by the sword. Die by the sword.

If Americans go into this election without a majority knowing who William Ayers and the Rev. Wright are then we have been asleep at the wheel and we will deserve electoral defeat. Luckily I think the 527’s will take care of this problem that McCain is too “gentlemanly”, in the storied history of Senatorial amity, to discuss.