Posted on 09/29/2008 4:03:24 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 200 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 338 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 235.80 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Lord help us.
I don’t care what Intrade or anyone else says. This map is complete b.s.
I bought McCain at 42.2 and I still think it was a bargain. McCain is going to take this election with 52% + and he is going to take some states that nobody even thinks he can.
Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado? Yeah, right.
I wish I had your optimism about this election.
McCain might, might lose CO, but he is going to take NH and one or more of PA, MI, WI and MI. He’ll also keep NV but lose NM. No way he loses NC.
I am optimistic. I have never gambled on inTrade before, but the idiots betting based on hokey polls have created a “buying” opportunity. If McCain drops to about 40 or less, I’ll buy even more.
NOTE: McCain is down to 37.3. BUY!!!!!!!!
My theory is that Soros has his hand in manipulating this thing. Take some of his money. Buy McCain now!
Here's your chance.
McCain currently trading at 37.
I sincerely hope you make a ton of money.
Obama will NOT win Florida. Amendment 2 took care of that. I think McCain is going to pull off Ohio and New Hampshire as well...the rest...could very well be true at this point.
The same Intrade that had Giuliani winning the nomination until January of this year.
If people are going to vote for Obama and the soocialist government that he will usher in, then they will have earned that government. Unfortantely they are going to drag evrrybody else with them.
And they said it couldn’t happen in this country!
Thanks for posting this thread again. As we’ve been discussing, with the new electoral map on Intrade as the first thing you see when you log in, things are much faster moving for the state-by-state contracts. Are we going to move to a daily Intrade thread? If so, where would one find the ping list? It’s not on your home page.
Note that I have an assignment for the next 4 days so I’m already out of contention for running the ping list.
If anyone wants to start up a daily Intrade live discussion thread and start a ping list for it, that's fine with me.
I will only be posting the weekly Electoral Vote updates on Mondays.
ping for reference
InTrade is heavily manipulated by European participants. It’s a betting site. Pure and simple.
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