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To: TitansAFC

Are these the final figures released right before the elections or from a similar time frame as the current race?


16 posted on 09/29/2008 6:31:22 AM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Thickman
Well, I imagine it's based on final numbers.

However, Battleground shows less wild swings; and I think its methodology (as has been proven) gets a much better snapshot/cross-section of where voters actually stand at a given point in time.

Gallup shows as much as 12-20 point swings, which I find a fantasy - and we all see the breakdowns in Party ID in the media-sponsored polls.

Rasmussen used to worry me, but he has so oversampled Democrats that he didn't even show a convention bounce for McCain - until he adjusted for more Republicans to show that bounce, having seen his folly - then went right back to oversampling Democrats.

Rasmussen has a 6% Dem edge in turnout - in 2004 it was 47/47. The most it has EVER swung in one election was 4 points. In 2006 - a Dem landslide year - the Party turnout margin was Dems +3%.

If we readjust most of the polls - even many of the “RV” and “Adults” polls - for a more reason able 1-4% Dem edge instead of the gap they use, you get a statistical tie with a sometimes very slight, statistically insignificant edge for Obama.

It is more a dead heat right now that some of the polls show. Battleground, history's most accurate pollster - period - shows the same.

38 posted on 09/29/2008 6:40:55 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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