[avacado]

Ouch is right! But Rasmusssen polls at Dems 39% and Reps 33%. The 2004 presidential election had a turnout of Dems 37% and Reps 37%.

[6SJ7]

It is all about turnout, turnout, turnout, and nothing more. Which side is more motivated to go to the polls.

Our side *is* motivated. The whole point of the MSM effort over the next 5 weeks is to try to beat down that resolve. Don’t let the bastards do it!

[TitansAFC]

I made the point yesterday, and have been for a short while, that Rasmussen's state and National Party ID expected turnout breakdown is just too heavily favoring Democrats.

He has openly swayed from his traditional models this election season, and I think it's going to hurt his credibility.

He has a rather large - near six point - Democrat turnout edge figured in to his national polls, and is apparently doing the same in his state polls - assuming larger Dem-to-GOP turnout gaps than have presented themselves in the past few elections.

His assumption just doesn't seem plausible. For example, if the turnout was 5-6 percent more Dems, there would be no swing states - they'd all be blue. It is starting to reveal itself in his polls.