The latest NBC/WSJ poll out yesterday has Obambi + 2 over McCain, that’s with Registered Voters, an admitted oversampling of Spanish and an oversample of dems. Peter Hart, who helps run the poll, is a longtime dem operative. I’d guess among Likely To Vote Mac is probably + 1 over the messiah.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NBCPoll_092408.pdf
Fox has it at O +6, Hotline and Bloomberg at O +4, Gallup and Ras at O +3. And these polls are 2-4 days old, it was only getting worse since then.
NBC/WSJ happened to have a sample which slightly favored McCain, imo. Perhaps they don’t adjust for cell phone users, which clearly favor Obama by about 2:1 margin.