[RepubRep]

CO scaring me.

It is ALL scaring me and call me weak-kneed and faithless but I am worried. The Dems will stop at NOTHING and Repubs have a history of NOT fighting back in a way that causes people to listen. Then add the MSM to the mess and unless we have some big miracle I am just not confident. Now folks please convince me that I am ALL WET!! I need it . . .

[section9]

Remember something well.

Back in 2000, Gore was up on Bush by about this much, and Kerry the same.

Obama should be up on McCain by eight to ten points in this environment. He’s not. He hasn’t broken fifty even once. This is a man who hasn’t, and I don’t think can, close the deal.

And so, we have to have faith that McCain can close on Obama and seal the deal in October, as Bush did last time round.

Best,

Chris

[Cringing Negativism Network]

McCain is flirting with George Bush’s milquetoast approach to bipartisanship.

Big mistake.

People don’t want milquetoast.

People want WWF. Time to rumble, Maverick.

[LS]

Well, most polls of “likely” voters have this dead even, even in VA and OH. The only state that McCain has to have and is consistently trailing among likely voters is CO. It voted for Bush twice. Don’t recall if CO went for Clinton.

[Truth29]

You are not ALL WET. McCain has gone off on a tangent and blamed everything on a corrupt Wall Street. The Democrats are eye deep in the Fannie and Freddie corruption and the social engineering policies that created the mortgage bubble, but McCain doesn't use that information.

He tried to get major reform legislation through in 2005 - 2006; the Democrats blocked the legislation, but few know it.

Palin is getting a lower profile lately and that has hurt, as well. Obama also was a major recipient of Fannie and Freddie campaign contributions.

McCain's campaign needs to do a much better job of getting both the history of how the financial disaster occurred and how he is different out to the undecided voter.

[The Sons of Liberty]

I agree with you 100%. Given the choices, McCain should be so far ahead that it would be tough to bias a poll enough to make a difference. If he’s got an ace up his sleeve the Maverick best be ready to play it.

[HamiltonJay]

Will you stop with the hand ringing:

" Repubs have a history of NOT fighting back in a way that causes people to listen"

Are you kidding me?? Please, go look historically at the election history for the president of the united states since Abraham Lincoln (the first republican). With the exception of LBJ, who rode the assassination of Kennedy to a huge victory, and FDR during the war, no democrat has won the White House by any sizeable margin in a 2 way race, in fact few others have, and when they have its been by the narrowest of margins. In fact in my lifetime only 1 democrat has won the white house in a 2 way race and it was by the slimmest of margins, and frankly if Ford had not gaffed in the debate he would have won.

I ask you to THINK people, THINK. For Fauxbama to win, he must hold every state Kerry won AND take 19 more EC votes. Now Kerry had the blue dog democrats, Fauxbama doesn't. There is no way Fauxbama is going to win the election without carrying blue color/moderate dems by a good margin. Its IMPOSSIBLE for any democrat to win without that group.

CO is all of 9 EC, even if it stays Dem until election day, and IA is 7. Assume the worst case and he gets both of these states and HOLDS all the Kerry states, he's still 3 EC votes shy of winning. Now, I don't believe for a minute Fauxbama can do that. I doubt he'll get both IA and CO at the end of the day, and I know damned well he will not hold every Kerry state.

NH is very likely to flip (-5 from the Fauxbama camp), and the true battleground states are WI, MI, PA and MN. Fauxbama cannot lose ANY of these states and win the white house. The idea that VA, FL or OH are swing states is LAUGHABLE, these states are NOT going to go to D.

PA is 21 EC votes, and in 2004 Kerry won the state by about 140,000 votes, and that was with the blue dogs and the state machine going all out for him. That's not happening for fauxbama, he's not even getting solid support in PHILLY/NE PA Region... And the Governor, is in the tank for Hillary, he is not going to mobilize the state machine beyond token for Fauxbama.

Look at the 2004 breakdown in PA:

Now, look at the internals of ANY poll in this state, and compare the support numbers for Fauxbama by demographic to the numbers Kerry got in 2004, and you'll find Fauxbama's numbers are down, and down significantly ACROSS THE BOARD from Kerry's, there is no way, he's going to win the election. PA is lost to Fauxbama and has been since the day he was chosen the nominee, and frankly of WI and MI I doubt Fauxbama will not lose at least 1 if not both of those states. MN while its certainly IN PLAY which has got to scare the crap out of the dems, I am less certain will move, as the state machine probably will make sure it stays D, but you never know. The point being the real battle is a defensive one for the dems, not an offensive one.. (I'd also keep an eye on WA, I think you are going to see the pundents and MSM wake up to the fact this one is going to be a sleeper for the R's in the next few weeks)

Frankly the polls are losing credibility IMHO with some of the crap they've been publishing lately, you can't show your internals with Fauxbama losing support in every demographic, yet he's surged 5 points? That doesn't pass the smell test.

To give you some more perspective, here are the results from the 2004 NATIONAL election by demographic:

Now go compare internals of any national poll to these numbers, I challenge you. Fauxbama is NOT getting 90%ish among his own party, he's 4-6 points behind in party support from McCain, yes, McCain's not at 93% like Bush was, but he's polling mid to upper 80s party support, while Fauxbama's in the low 80s, females Fauxbama is not getting 51% support, and most importantly FAUXBAMA is NOWHERE near 50% support by "independents".

McCains been winning the moderate and independent vote from the get go, in fact the real threat to McCain was him not being able to unify the base behind him. The Palin choice has pretty much removed this issue. So with the base behind him and him winning the swing vote by a wide margin, there is no statistical way Fauxbama can win the election, I don't care what daily tracking polls are telling you.

I offer an open invitation to anyone, FR, or DU lurker or anyone to show me one remotely reliable poll that where you look at the internals and it shows Fauxbama having any shot of winning.