Well, most polls of “likely” voters have this dead even, even in VA and OH. The only state that McCain has to have and is consistently trailing among likely voters is CO. It voted for Bush twice. Don’t recall if CO went for Clinton.
Clinton won CO in ‘92 and lost it in ‘96.
Look at how far back these polls go - September 14. That puts the full weight of polling at the start of the financial crisis against McCain.