You are dead on, PhiKapMom!
McCain has people that do polling for him, and those people HAVE to be accurate. So their actions mirror exactly where things are.
All of these other polling outfits can be wrong, and no one will care after election day, because they will be right back next time doing the same stuff!
No polling outfit from 2004 went out of business no matter how inaccurate they were.
Exactly! Learned in 2000 when I knew what the internals were doing to stop paying attention to these polling outfits. Been yelling ever since polls are generally worthless from national polling outfits.
We have a polling group in OK that works for a local TV station in OKC — his are pretty close because he understands in OK that to weight polling by party doesn’t work as those OK conservative Dems have voted GOP for President since 1968. What to watch here is the margin in his polls. If OK has a huge margin (41 right now), it bodes well for the GOP elsewhere as it shows we are also getting moderate Dem votes.
I bet if we kept track of what campaigns are doing, we could do a much better prediction of what is going to happen. :)