*PTOOI!*
[That's a big cyber-loogie for the Neuteri Karta capos.]
Posted on 09/17/2008 4:02:34 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary
The Siena poll, one of the two key polls of New York state voters, has come out with its monthly snapshot of the presidential race in the Empire State. And it’s stunning. It is remarkable, though not eye-opening, that John McCain is now only 5 points behind Barack Obama, 46-41 – not shocking because polls have narrowed to similar margins in New Jersey. (It should be noted, however, that according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, Obama is leading in New York by 55-42.)
No, the shocking detail has to do with a wild, 35-point swing toward McCain among Jewish voters. Obama led among them by a margin of 50-37 in August. This month, McCain is actually leading Obama by a margin of 54 percent to 32 percent.
Siena polled 626 likely voters this month. Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33.
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
In Florida, the implications are obvious. Obama’s own Jewish organizers in Florida are telling the campaign they are finding profound resistance to him, particularly in South Florida. The polling overall there seems to be moving inexorably in McCain’s direction, which is necessary for him; it is nearly impossible to see how he can win the election if he loses Florida.
But what about Pennsylvania? That is a state it appears Obama must win. There are, it is estimated, more than 200,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, a state John Kerry won by 140,000 votes. If we assume Pennsylvania’s 200,000 voting Jews voted in the same way as Jews nationwide in 2004 and went 76-24 for Kerry, we can attribute 150,000 Jewish votes to Kerry, his entire margin of victory plus seven percent. Now imagine if that number had been closer to 50-50. Kerry would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 150,000. Bush would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 50,000. Kerry’s margin of victory would then have shrunk to 40,000 votes.
It appears Obama may have a tougher time in Pennsylvania than Kerry did because of his difficulty attracting the ethnic white vote in the western part of the state. If there is a Jewish swing away from him as well, he really could lose there. And if he loses there and loses Ohio, he is sunk. Ohio has approximately 80,000 Jewish voters, so a swing away from Obama to a 50-50 race would cost him 25,000 votes Kerry presumably received in 2004 — and in a state that Bush won by 121,000 votes.
We’ll need more data from two other states with a significant Jewish population to allow for a measurable sample size in a poll – Florida and California – and a polling firm willing to break out the Jewish vote as Siena has, to see whether this is just statistical smoke or whether Obama has a brushfire he needs to put out somehow before it consumes him.
And they have more babies.
Don’t believe it. In the end, they will nearly ALL vote democrat. It is what Jews do.
“What do you think pushes so many Jews toward a liberal viewpoint? I’ve often wondered that...”
1- being raised by parents who idolized FDR
2- Too many years spent in universities which we know have been co-opted by radical leftist thought, especially in the social sciences departments.
3- Heavy representation in the fields of psychology, psychiatry, and education.
4- The feminist movement
5- Propaganda that depicted the GOP as anti-semitic.
To name a few that come to mind.
The Skverer Jews of New Square are insular putzes led by their sect leaders, who were bought off.
My Jewish family (Canadians) will vote this way in this coming election:
most of the older generation will vote for the Liberals (never the NDP )
we, the middle generation will vote for the Conservative party...
The younger i see more trending towards the Conservative party but not all yet...
BUT this is how we see the election in the USA:
older, middle and younger hope that McCain wins BECAUSE of the Muslim connection, and ALL of them agree that Obama IS a Muslim... No other issue is more important to them than that Muslim issue.. As for American Jews, I don't know what their problem is??
Well the Nazis over at the Barnes review are claiming that Palin is Jewish (or rather her maternal grandfather was).
Shvartzers! Loizem gayne!
Mel Brooks (Blazing Saddles)
folks...its not over....the polls are extremely close and some give it to Barry...
please consider donating to the national party or the compliance fund and help out in your local races as well.....be sure to attend any rallies, etc...
be sure to vote and be sure to get your conservative family or friends to vote....
its not over...I wish it were.....but we need a whole bunch of states to win....we need Ohio and Virginia and Indiana and Florida and Colorado among others....
ITS NOT OVER!
its amazing that any Jew would vote for the Obamanation.....truly a death wish.....
well, if the Orthodox Jews would have large, large families, as well as the conservative Catholics and Mormons and the Baptists, our country wouldn’t be in such a mess....
Whenever there’s an article about Jews voting for McCain or being more conservative, the FR clown crew shows up to explain how bad Jews suck and how liberal they are. THIS IS A STORY ABOUT JEWS VOTING FOR MCCAIN! But why miss an opportunity to pile on.
My husband is Jewish and all his family is voting for McCain. We were both very surprised!
Looks like Obama is going to have to start fighting for New York, if he wants to take it in November.
*PTOOI!*
[That's a big cyber-loogie for the Neuteri Karta capos.]
That town normally votes Republican, but its people do what their leaders ask, and the leaders were purchased.
LLS
the blonds they have on FNF in the morning are totally fungible.
They have no difference, and they seem barely to contain themselves in saying nice things for Obama.
They give FREE REIGN for their so called contributors to spew obama talking points (beckle is 100% transparent but they always let it go un challenged)
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