Posted on 09/17/2008 4:02:34 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary
The Siena poll, one of the two key polls of New York state voters, has come out with its monthly snapshot of the presidential race in the Empire State. And it’s stunning. It is remarkable, though not eye-opening, that John McCain is now only 5 points behind Barack Obama, 46-41 – not shocking because polls have narrowed to similar margins in New Jersey. (It should be noted, however, that according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, Obama is leading in New York by 55-42.)
No, the shocking detail has to do with a wild, 35-point swing toward McCain among Jewish voters. Obama led among them by a margin of 50-37 in August. This month, McCain is actually leading Obama by a margin of 54 percent to 32 percent.
Siena polled 626 likely voters this month. Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33.
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
In Florida, the implications are obvious. Obama’s own Jewish organizers in Florida are telling the campaign they are finding profound resistance to him, particularly in South Florida. The polling overall there seems to be moving inexorably in McCain’s direction, which is necessary for him; it is nearly impossible to see how he can win the election if he loses Florida.
But what about Pennsylvania? That is a state it appears Obama must win. There are, it is estimated, more than 200,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, a state John Kerry won by 140,000 votes. If we assume Pennsylvania’s 200,000 voting Jews voted in the same way as Jews nationwide in 2004 and went 76-24 for Kerry, we can attribute 150,000 Jewish votes to Kerry, his entire margin of victory plus seven percent. Now imagine if that number had been closer to 50-50. Kerry would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 150,000. Bush would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 50,000. Kerry’s margin of victory would then have shrunk to 40,000 votes.
It appears Obama may have a tougher time in Pennsylvania than Kerry did because of his difficulty attracting the ethnic white vote in the western part of the state. If there is a Jewish swing away from him as well, he really could lose there. And if he loses there and loses Ohio, he is sunk. Ohio has approximately 80,000 Jewish voters, so a swing away from Obama to a 50-50 race would cost him 25,000 votes Kerry presumably received in 2004 — and in a state that Bush won by 121,000 votes.
We’ll need more data from two other states with a significant Jewish population to allow for a measurable sample size in a poll – Florida and California – and a polling firm willing to break out the Jewish vote as Siena has, to see whether this is just statistical smoke or whether Obama has a brushfire he needs to put out somehow before it consumes him.
Looks more and more that it is all over for Obama.
PING
I don’t believe this poll. Jews are liberal.
Wonder how many were polled in New York and then again in Florida?
Jews Now Favor McCain in New York, 54-32
I believe that a one day sweep through New York could very well put NY with it’s 31 electoral votes into a statistical tie. Might even galvanize the base and really push up the get out to vote effort.
Might be the “surge” needed to tip the scale.
I guess some of them saw the flyer from Rev. Wright about the “State” of Israel, the ties to known Jew Haters Farrakhan and Sharpton. The 20 years in the Jew-Hater church. About time some of them grow up.
I don’t believe this.
We’d overwhelmingly vote for for Goebbles if he ran on the DNC ticket.
Warning! This is a high-volume ping list.
All the antisemitism on all these “left wing” forums, and yet the Jews still migrate towards this party???
i guess this is Jewish guilt...of some sort...
I read many republican forums, and compared them to left leaning forums...the difference is plain to see...
Just don't get it
Please tell me you are being sarcastic.
(It’s hard to tell; I’ve seen that same post made seriously.)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Yes you are right but the Orthodox are growing in NY and they are more conservative.
“Jews Now Favor McCain in New York, 54-32”
Hillary did what she could for Obama today when she balked on joining the Jewish sponsered demonstration against Iran this coming Monday.
Ha, ha, ha.
holycrapola
But if it's not, you know that BigGirls Don't Cry!
The same day Sarah Palin was named as VP candidate, the Chabad rabbi in Anchorage gave a very positive endorsement for her.
Ever since then, the Jewish libs have been scrambling, repeating the same debunked crap over and over, thinking that we are so stupid to swallow that koolaid.
My dad, a WW2 Navy vet, is voting for McCain. Sadly, my mom drank the Dem koolaid.
Super Mitzvah!
Can't wait until OCTOBER : ) I already got my scary OBAMA mask courtesy of Recycled Greeting Cards...
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